The Subscription Arm
Eidos Montréal's 2027 imagined a world that rebuilt its bodies and then rented them back. The arms are still a way off. The terms and conditions arrived early.

Nearfi scores Deus Ex: Human Revolution (2011) 8.0/10 as art. It lets you solve almost any room by stealth, force, hacking or talk, and each route feels designed rather than tolerated. As prophecy, its P(n) is 72%: Bionic limbs, retinal implants and brain chips exist and help real people, but none outperforms flesh yet, and the dependence on one company has already been seen.
- It lets you solve almost any room by stealth, force, hacking or talk, and each route feels designed rather than tolerated.
- The boss fights were outsourced and it shows, the faces are stiff, and the plot's conspiracy grows less interesting than its ideas.
- Its sharpest prediction is not the cybernetic arm but the drug you must keep buying so your body doesn't reject it.
Bionic limbs, retinal implants and brain chips exist and help real people, but none outperforms flesh yet, and the dependence on one company has already been seen.
- ARRIVING People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones.
- ARRIVING Recipients of augmentations depend on a continuing supply from, or support by, a company for their implants to keep working.
- ARRIVING Implants connect directly to the nervous system or brain so a person can control machines.
Bionic limbs, retinal implants and brain chips exist and help real people, but none outperforms flesh yet, and the dependence on one company has already been seen.
In the world of Deus Ex: Human Revolution, the miracle is not the arm. It's the prescription.
Augmentations, the game's artificial limbs and organs, come with a catch. The body rejects them, and the only remedy is an expensive drug called Neuropozyne, taken for as long as you live. Skip it and the machine you were given turns into an injury. The game never lingers on this. It sits in the background of side conversations, a quiet fact of life, and it is easily the most prophetic thing in it.
Eidos Montréal's game came out in August 2011 for Windows, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, published by Square Enix. It is a prequel to Ion Storm's Deus Ex (2000) and is set in 2027, twenty-five years before the original. That is next year. We have time to check the work.
The art
Adam Jensen is a security manager at Sarif Industries, a Detroit firm that makes augmentations. Augmented terrorists known as the Tyrants attack the company, Megan Reed and other scientists are presumed dead, and Jensen, gravely wounded, is rebuilt with advanced augmentations. Then he goes looking for who did it. The trail runs through Detroit, Montreal, Hengsha, a fictional Chinese megacity, a Singapore base, and finally the Arctic facility called Panchaea.
What makes it a classic and not just a good shooter is how many roads it leaves open. Almost every space can be taken by stealth, by force or by hacking, and some confrontations can be won by talking. You spend Praxis points to unlock Jensen's upgrades, which turns a character sheet into a debate about what kind of man he is going to be.
It also looks like nothing else. The art team drew on Renaissance painting and the myth of Icarus, and the palette is black and gold: black for the dystopia, gold for hope. It was a marvellous decision in 2011, and the Director's Cut of 2013 still looks like a game that knows what it wants.
The flaws are well known and real. The boss fights were built by a separate studio, Grip Entertainment, and force a shooting gallery on a player who has spent ten hours being clever. The Director's Cut reworked them. The faces are stiff. The conspiracy, with its hidden hands and a final choice among four endings, never reaches the intelligence of the game's central question, which is who owns a body once it contains a product. It would have been braver to let the ending turn on a contract.
It sold 2.18 million copies by November 2011 and scored around 90 on Metacritic.
The prophecy: four claims
The arm. The fantasy is surgical enhancement: limbs and eyes that beat the original. We are not there. The real devices are restorative. In May 2014 the FDA approved the DEKA arm, which reads muscle signals from the upper arm through electrodes and turns them into movement. It's a genuine feat, and a long way from the one Jensen wears. A much-cited 2007 review of the literature found adults rejected body-powered prostheses at about 26% and electric ones at about 23%. People put down hardware that doesn't fit their lives.
The prescription. Here the game was ahead of the news. Second Sight's Argus II retinal implant was approved in the US in 2013, and more than 350 blind people received one. In 2020 the company laid off most of its staff and announced it intended to wind down. IEEE Spectrum reported in 2022 that users had a device in their heads with no one to maintain it. One recipient, Ross Doerr, called it "fantastic technology and a lousy company." No rejection drug was involved, but the logic was Neuropozyne's: your body depends on a firm's solvency. A contract that depends on one firm's solvency is not one anyone should sign for an eye.
The implant in the skull. Jensen's augmentations include direct interfaces with his nervous system. In January 2024 Neuralink implanted its first human patient, Noland Arbaugh, who is paralysed from the shoulders down. In March a livestream showed him moving a cursor and playing online chess with his mind. About a month after surgery, some of the implant's threads retracted from his brain, reducing his control. Neuralink said software changes improved performance. By August 2025 he was reportedly using the device about ten hours a day. It is a real thing, in a trial, for people who have lost something. It isn't yet a luxury upgrade, and the game's rich citizens can't buy it.
The newsreader. Eliza Cassan, the public face of Picus Communications, is a polished broadcaster who turns out to be artificial. In November 2018 China's Xinhua agency unveiled two virtual news anchors, built with Sogou, which could read text round the clock; Xinhua admitted they weren't true AI. In October 2025 Channel 4's Dispatches ran a documentary fronted by a fully AI-generated presenter, revealed near the end. The game made this a twist. We made it a stunt.
The reading
The surprise of replaying it is how little of the future depends on the hardware. The cyborg parts are the easy ones, and a lot of them are already underway in clinics. The harder part is the arrangement. The most advanced technology in the world sat in a body that someone else could switch off, and the game understood that long before regulators did.
That is also the argument for what Nearfi calls ARRIVING. Not the biceps; the terms. A better 2027 would be one where the repair, the data and the upgrade belong to the person wearing them. The game doesn't tell you how to get there. It does make you feel the missing clause.
Play it before the year it's named for. Then read the small print on anything that attaches to you.
What it predicted, and what happened
Human Revolution is most prescient about the terms of augmentation: implants that depend on one company's survival, and early brain interfaces for people who have lost function. Its central fantasy, limbs and organs that beat the flesh they replace, is still some way off.
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXHR-1 | People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones. Core premise: Jensen's rebuilt body and the world's argument over augmentation drive the whole story. |
5 | ARRIVING 2045 (2035–2070) | 52% | 92% |
| DXHR-2 | Recipients of augmentations depend on a continuing supply from, or support by, a company for their implants to keep working. Major: the anti-rejection drug and corporate control of bodies shape the central conflict over augmentation. |
4 | ARRIVING 2035 (2030–2050) | 79% | 100% |
| DXHR-3 | Implants connect directly to the nervous system or brain so a person can control machines. Supporting: neural interfaces are part of Jensen's augmented body, but the plot turns on ownership and conspiracy. |
3 | ARRIVING 2035 (2030–2050) | 79% | 100% |
| DXHR-4 | A synthetic, computer-generated presenter fronts broadcast news. Texture: Eliza Cassan matters to one strand of the plot, but the story does not rest on it. |
2 | ARRIVED arrived 2018 | 100% | 100% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 10.1 ÷ 14 = 72% | |||||
| P50 = 13.6 ÷ 14 = 97% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 57%.
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DXHR-1
People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: Jensen's rebuilt body and the world's argument over augmentation drive the whole story.
Restorative devices are in use: the FDA approved the DEKA arm in 2014, which reads muscle signals through electrodes. None yet beats a natural limb, and a 2007 review found adults rejected electric prostheses at about 23%. The gap is in control, sensation, comfort and durability, not in the idea. Elective enhancement of healthy bodies is further off than repair, so the range is wide. 12
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DXHR-2
Recipients of augmentations depend on a continuing supply from, or support by, a company for their implants to keep working.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the anti-rejection drug and corporate control of bodies shape the central conflict over augmentation.
The dependence has already been seen in a different form. Second Sight's Argus II retinal implant, approved in the US in 2013 and given to more than 350 people, lost support when the company wound down in 2020. Later ownership changes included a commitment to technical support, but implants cannot be repaired or replaced. It is a partial arrival: the dependence is on a firm's solvency, not a drug. 34
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DXHR-3
Implants connect directly to the nervous system or brain so a person can control machines.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: neural interfaces are part of Jensen's augmented body, but the plot turns on ownership and conspiracy.
Clinical trials are under way. Neuralink implanted its first human patient in January 2024, and in March he played online chess with a cursor he moved by thought. Some of the implant's threads later retracted, reducing control, though the company said software changes improved performance. It works in a small trial for people who have lost function, not as a consumer upgrade. 56
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DXHR-4
A synthetic, computer-generated presenter fronts broadcast news.
Weight 2/5 · Texture: Eliza Cassan matters to one strand of the plot, but the story does not rest on it.
Xinhua unveiled two virtual news anchors in November 2018, which could read text round the clock, though the agency said they weren't true AI. In October 2025 Channel 4 broadcast a Dispatches documentary fronted by a fully AI-generated presenter. The game's version, an artificial mind with a human public face, is a stronger claim than either. 78
- FOR FDA Approves First Mind-Controlled Prosthetic Arm. NBC News, 2014-05-12. FDA approval of the DEKA arm system, driven by electrodes that detect upper-arm muscle movement, not brain signals.
- AGAINST Upper limb prosthesis use and abandonment: a survey of the last 25 years. Prosthetics and Orthotics International (via PubMed), 2007-09. Literature review reporting adult rejection of about 26% for body-powered and 23% for electric upper-limb prostheses.
- FOR Their Bionic Eyes Are Now Obsolete and Unsupported. IEEE Spectrum, 2022-02. Reports that Second Sight stopped supporting the Argus II and users could be left with failing implants. One user calls it 'fantastic technology and a lousy company'.
- CONTEXT Second Sight Medical Products. Wikipedia, 2023-08. Summarises the 2023 merger with Nano Precision Medical, which came with a commitment to provide technical support for the Argus II.
- FOR Neuralink shows first human patient using brain implant to play online chess. Popular Science, 2024-03. Describes the March 2024 livestream in which the first patient moved a cursor and played chess using the implant.
- AGAINST Noland Arbaugh. Wikipedia, 2025-08. Notes that some threads retracted from his brain about a month after surgery, reducing control, citing Reuters and WSJ reports.
- FOR Chinese state media debuts 'AI' news anchors. Tech Xplore (AFP), 2018-11-09. Xinhua and Sogou's two virtual anchors; Xinhua said they respond only to input text and are not true AI.
- FOR Channel 4 makes TV history with Britain's first AI presenter. Channel 4, 2025-10-20. A Dispatches documentary with a fully AI-generated presenter revealed near the end; Channel 4 said it would not make a habit of it.
Ledger updated 4 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method
Themes: Clones and genetics · AI and machine minds
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