Did Deus Ex: Human Revolution come true?
Largely, yes. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (2011) has a P(n) of 72% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 3 are arriving. Its central premise, 'People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.
Human Revolution is most prescient about the terms of augmentation: implants that depend on one company's survival, and early brain interfaces for people who have lost function. Its central fantasy, limbs and organs that beat the flesh they replace, is still some way off.
Read the review · 8.0/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXHR-1 | People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones. Core premise: Jensen's rebuilt body and the world's argument over augmentation drive the whole story. |
5 | ARRIVING 2045 (2035–2070) | 52% | 92% |
| DXHR-2 | Recipients of augmentations depend on a continuing supply from, or support by, a company for their implants to keep working. Major: the anti-rejection drug and corporate control of bodies shape the central conflict over augmentation. |
4 | ARRIVING 2035 (2030–2050) | 79% | 100% |
| DXHR-3 | Implants connect directly to the nervous system or brain so a person can control machines. Supporting: neural interfaces are part of Jensen's augmented body, but the plot turns on ownership and conspiracy. |
3 | ARRIVING 2035 (2030–2050) | 79% | 100% |
| DXHR-4 | A synthetic, computer-generated presenter fronts broadcast news. Texture: Eliza Cassan matters to one strand of the plot, but the story does not rest on it. |
2 | ARRIVED arrived 2018 | 100% | 100% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 10.1 ÷ 14 = 72% | |||||
| P50 = 13.6 ÷ 14 = 97% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 57%.
-
DXHR-1
People can have limbs and organs replaced with surgically fitted augmentations that match or outperform natural ones.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: Jensen's rebuilt body and the world's argument over augmentation drive the whole story.
Restorative devices are in use: the FDA approved the DEKA arm in 2014, which reads muscle signals through electrodes. None yet beats a natural limb, and a 2007 review found adults rejected electric prostheses at about 23%. The gap is in control, sensation, comfort and durability, not in the idea. Elective enhancement of healthy bodies is further off than repair, so the range is wide. 12
-
DXHR-2
Recipients of augmentations depend on a continuing supply from, or support by, a company for their implants to keep working.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the anti-rejection drug and corporate control of bodies shape the central conflict over augmentation.
The dependence has already been seen in a different form. Second Sight's Argus II retinal implant, approved in the US in 2013 and given to more than 350 people, lost support when the company wound down in 2020. Later ownership changes included a commitment to technical support, but implants cannot be repaired or replaced. It is a partial arrival: the dependence is on a firm's solvency, not a drug. 34
-
DXHR-3
Implants connect directly to the nervous system or brain so a person can control machines.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: neural interfaces are part of Jensen's augmented body, but the plot turns on ownership and conspiracy.
Clinical trials are under way. Neuralink implanted its first human patient in January 2024, and in March he played online chess with a cursor he moved by thought. Some of the implant's threads later retracted, reducing control, though the company said software changes improved performance. It works in a small trial for people who have lost function, not as a consumer upgrade. 56
-
DXHR-4
A synthetic, computer-generated presenter fronts broadcast news.
Weight 2/5 · Texture: Eliza Cassan matters to one strand of the plot, but the story does not rest on it.
Xinhua unveiled two virtual news anchors in November 2018, which could read text round the clock, though the agency said they weren't true AI. In October 2025 Channel 4 broadcast a Dispatches documentary fronted by a fully AI-generated presenter. The game's version, an artificial mind with a human public face, is a stronger claim than either. 78
- FOR FDA Approves First Mind-Controlled Prosthetic Arm. NBC News, 2014-05-12. FDA approval of the DEKA arm system, driven by electrodes that detect upper-arm muscle movement, not brain signals.
- AGAINST Upper limb prosthesis use and abandonment: a survey of the last 25 years. Prosthetics and Orthotics International (via PubMed), 2007-09. Literature review reporting adult rejection of about 26% for body-powered and 23% for electric upper-limb prostheses.
- FOR Their Bionic Eyes Are Now Obsolete and Unsupported. IEEE Spectrum, 2022-02. Reports that Second Sight stopped supporting the Argus II and users could be left with failing implants. One user calls it 'fantastic technology and a lousy company'.
- CONTEXT Second Sight Medical Products. Wikipedia, 2023-08. Summarises the 2023 merger with Nano Precision Medical, which came with a commitment to provide technical support for the Argus II.
- FOR Neuralink shows first human patient using brain implant to play online chess. Popular Science, 2024-03. Describes the March 2024 livestream in which the first patient moved a cursor and played chess using the implant.
- AGAINST Noland Arbaugh. Wikipedia, 2025-08. Notes that some threads retracted from his brain about a month after surgery, reducing control, citing Reuters and WSJ reports.
- FOR Chinese state media debuts 'AI' news anchors. Tech Xplore (AFP), 2018-11-09. Xinhua and Sogou's two virtual anchors; Xinhua said they respond only to input text and are not true AI.
- FOR Channel 4 makes TV history with Britain's first AI presenter. Channel 4, 2025-10-20. A Dispatches documentary with a fully AI-generated presenter revealed near the end; Channel 4 said it would not make a habit of it.
Ledger updated 4 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method