P(n), explained.
P(n) is the chance that a work's imagined future arrives within 20 years. Nearfi covers the near future, from the next five days to the next fifty years; P(n) looks at the middle of that window, and P50 at the far edge.
The three numbers
- P(n) = P20. The weighted probability that the work's predictions have arrived by 2046. This is the headline figure.
- P50. The same, by 2076: the whole near future.
- Here now. How much has already arrived today. Arrived counts 1, arriving counts ½.
How one prediction gets a probability
- Arrived is 100%. Diverged (history went another way) is 0%.
- Everything else has our estimate: a median year and an 80% range. We read that as a curve. The low end of the range is a 10% chance, the median year 50%, the high end 90%, with straight lines between them, starting from 0% today and tapering to 100% after the high end.
- The chance by 2046 is read off that curve.
Example: a prediction estimated at 2040, with a range of 2032–2060, has a 62% chance by 2046: six years along the twenty-year line from 50% at 2040 to 90% at 2060.
Why weights
A film should be judged on its central idea, not its set dressing. Each prediction gets a weight from 1 to 5: 5 core premise (the story doesn't exist without it), 4 major, 3 supporting, 2 texture, 1 background.
P(n, y) = Σ (weight × chance by year y) ÷ Σ weight
A worked example: The Truman Show
Four predictions, weighted by how much the film depends on them. Open the table to see every number.
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRU-1 | An ordinary person's daily life is broadcast live, around the clock, to a public audience. Core premise: the round-the-clock broadcast of Truman's life is what the film is. |
5 | ARRIVED arrived 2007 | 100% | 100% |
| TRU-2 | A hit show is built around one real person who doesn't know everyone around him is an actor. Core premise: Truman not knowing everyone is an actor drives his discovery and escape. |
5 | ARRIVED arrived 2023 | 100% | 100% |
| TRU-3 | Ordinary neighbourhoods are covered by networked cameras whose footage a company can access and search. Supporting: Seahaven's hidden cameras make the show possible, but the claim's searchable neighbourhood network is secondary. |
3 | ARRIVED arrived 2018 | 100% | 100% |
| TRU-4 | Weather can be controlled on demand, down to rain over a single spot. Texture: the focused rain is a gag that shows how controlled the set is; the plot doesn't depend on it. |
2 | NEAR 2060 (2045–2100) | 13% | 66% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 13.3 ÷ 15 = 88% | |||||
| P50 = 14.3 ÷ 15 = 95% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 87%.
What P(n) is not
- Not a quality score. A brilliant film can have a low P(n); that's what the review score is for.
- Not a promise. The estimates are reasoned guesses with honest ranges, and they move as evidence lands. Every ledger is dated and keeps a history.