The Man with the Phone
Ubisoft's Chicago handed every player the one tool the real city kept for itself. The tool turned out to be rather dull, and the city did not need a hero to build it.

Nearfi scores Watch Dogs (2014) 6.9/10 as art. Pointing a phone at a stranger and reading their file is an unsettling, original verb, and the hacking turns Chicago into an instrument. As prophecy, its P(n) is 86%: Chicago did build camera networks and a police risk list, and researchers did hijack signals and a car, but no single system runs a city and no hacker holds it.
- Pointing a phone at a stranger and reading their file is an unsettling, original verb, and the hacking turns Chicago into an instrument.
- Aiden Pearce is a dour avenger in a long coat, and the driving and shooting are borrowed from games that did them better.
- It makes you the watcher, so it can never ask whether the watchers should exist, which is the question the 2020s asked.
Chicago did build camera networks and a police risk list, and researchers did hijack signals and a car, but no single system runs a city and no hacker holds it.
- ARRIVING A single city-wide operating system links cameras, traffic signals, transit, phones and public records, so one network can see and steer a whole city.
- ARRIVING A lone hacker can remotely take over city infrastructure and vehicles, such as traffic lights and cars, from a phone.
- ARRIVING Police use algorithms to flag individual residents as likely future offenders or victims before any crime occurs.
Chicago did build camera networks and a police risk list, and researchers did hijack signals and a car, but no single system runs a city and no hacker holds it.
Early in Watch Dogs you stand on a pavement, hold up a phone and look at strangers.
That's the game's best idea, and it's in the first hour. Point at a passer-by and a small box opens beside them with a name, a job and one line of private detail, drawn from the city's records. You're not told what to do with this. You can steal from their account, which the game permits, or you can walk on. The unease is the point, and it's mostly a good one.
Watch Dogs is a third-person open-world game made by Ubisoft Montreal, released in May 2014 for the machines of the day, and it arrived with an enormous amount of hope attached. It had been planned as a showpiece for the new generation of consoles and slipped to the spring. When it came out, a row about whether the final graphics matched the 2012 demonstration filled the pages that should have gone to its ideas. Ubisoft said the visuals had not been downgraded. It sold more than ten million copies by the end of 2014, and review aggregation put it at 77 on PC and 80 on PlayStation 4. A hit, then. A hit that people were curiously quick to forget.
The art: a city you can play like an instrument
Set in a fictionalised Chicago close to its own present, the game gives you Aiden Pearce, a grey-hat hacker who turns vigilante after his niece is killed. The city runs on ctOS, a network that links its cameras, traffic lights, bridges, cash machines, trains and phones into one system. Aiden's phone talks to all of it.
This is where the game earns its marks. Chase a car and you raise a bollard in its path. Get pinned down and you drop a bridge, or fire a steam pipe, or black out a block. The city, which in most open-world games is wallpaper, becomes a set of switches. It's a clever reversal of the genre's usual power fantasy. The player's strength lies in knowing the building, not in carrying the biggest gun. Within an hour of starting, you are listening for the hum of a junction box the way you'd once listened for footsteps.
The rest is less inventive. Pearce is the hard part to forgive: a man in a cap, a mask and a long coat, who treats his niece's death as a licence and is meant to be taken as a hero. The story keeps wanting to be about surveillance and keeps being about revenge. Driving and gunplay are competent and unremarkable, borrowed from the games that Ubisoft was trying to dethrone. Hacking itself is mostly a button press with a nice animation on top. The ideas are bigger than the verbs.
It's a handsome piece of work all the same. The Chicago of the Steam promotional shot is a damp, brown, golden-lit city of alleys and fire escapes and elevated trains, and a night run along the L is the game at its best. Score it as a good, ambitious, overstuffed first attempt at something new. That's a 6.9, and it's a respectable 6.9.
The prophecy: the watcher you play
Watch Dogs is a game about surveillance that makes you the surveiller. That's both its hook and its limit. The bad people have the system; you borrow it. Because you are the one holding the phone, the game never asks what it means for anyone to hold it. The 2020s asked that question, loudly, and got an answer the game didn't anticipate.
It did anticipate a good deal else. Its release came a year after the NSA revelations of 2013, and coverage at the time said they lent the game a topicality that its marketing couldn't have bought. Check the claims against the record, and you find four threads.
The joined-up city. ctOS is one operating system for everything. The real thing is a patchwork. Chicago did build one of America's largest camera networks, Operation Virtual Shield, which has been reported as linking more than 3,000 cameras to a central monitoring system, with facial recognition added. But nobody has built the single brain. Alphabet's Sidewalk Labs tried to build a sensor-rich district on Toronto's waterfront, and abandoned it in May 2020 after years of argument about who would own the data. The game imagined a city that was one machine. Real cities turned out to be a drawer full of vendors who do not talk to each other.
The hijacked street. Here the game was a few years behind the researchers, not ahead of them. In 2014, a University of Michigan team took control of nearly 100 networked traffic signals, with the road agency's permission, using a laptop and a radio, because the links were unencrypted and the passwords were defaults. A year later, two researchers took over a Jeep Cherokee on a motorway through its internet connection, and Fiat Chrysler recalled 1.4 million vehicles. These were demonstrations, with the owners' consent. Nobody has yet reported a lone vigilante steering a city. But the mechanism Watch Dogs dramatises, a weak default on a roadside box, is real, and it has not gone away.
The risk score. The game's ctOS flags people it considers likely to commit crimes. Chicago's own police department ran something close. The Strategic Subject List, known as the heat list, assigned people a score for the likelihood of being involved in a shooting. A RAND study reported in 2016 that people on the list were no more likely to be shot than a comparison group. The department shut the programme down on 1 November 2019 when its federal grant ended, and the city's Inspector General published an advisory the following January. The real list was worse than the game's and less dramatic: a spreadsheet, officers given only vague guidance on what to do with it, and no mastermind in sight.
The profile. The player's phone can pull up a stranger's file. The nearest real equivalents are sold to institutions. Clearview AI built a database of billions of face images from the internet and sold it to police until a 2022 settlement stopped it selling to private companies and individuals. In January 2025 the FTC finalised orders against two data brokers, Gravy Analytics and Mobilewalla, over the sale of sensitive location data. The game imagines the surveillance as a heroic gadget. In practice it was a market.
The reading
The sequels tried to repair the original's problem. Watch Dogs 2 moved to the San Francisco Bay Area, put the hackers in a collective and made the villain a company, Blume, whose ctOS 2.0 spies for profit. Watch Dogs: Legion moved to London in 2020, where a private military company has turned the city into a surveillance state. They're better aimed at the real target. They are also the proof that the first game missed it.
What Watch Dogs got right was the interface, one that turns a city into something you can touch, tap and ask questions of. In the mid-2020s, we all have a version of that phone. What it got wrong was the hero. Everyone who built these systems in real life believed they were solving a problem, and none of them had Pearce's coat. The game's most lasting image is the profile box over a stranger's head. It is good enough for a T-shirt and not much else.
What it predicted, and what happened
Watch Dogs was set so close to its own day that it mostly predicted what was already being built, and it got the ingredients right: a joined-up city, scored citizens, hackable infrastructure. It missed the form. The real systems are a patchwork of vendors and agencies, and the profiling is done by advertisers and police contractors, not by one operating system.
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WD-1 | A single city-wide operating system links cameras, traffic signals, transit, phones and public records, so one network can see and steer a whole city. Core premise: ctOS is the game's world and its central mechanic; every hack and every plot turn runs through it. |
5 | ARRIVING 2037 (2030–2055) | 70% | 100% |
| WD-2 | A lone hacker can remotely take over city infrastructure and vehicles, such as traffic lights and cars, from a phone. Major: the player's main verbs are hijacking signals, bridges and cars, and the plot's set pieces depend on them. |
4 | ARRIVING 2032 (2028–2045) | 91% | 100% |
| WD-3 | Police use algorithms to flag individual residents as likely future offenders or victims before any crime occurs. Major: the crime-prediction warnings in ctOS drive Aiden's vigilantism and the game's central question about who is watching whom. |
4 | ARRIVING 2030 (2027–2040) | 96% | 100% |
| WD-4 | Anyone with a phone can look up a stranger's name, job, income and habits from the street, using data the city and companies hold on everyone. Supporting: the profiler is the game's signature interface and sets its tone, but the plot does not turn on it. |
3 | ARRIVING 2031 (2027–2042) | 94% | 100% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 13.8 ÷ 16 = 86% | |||||
| P50 = 16.0 ÷ 16 = 100% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 50%.
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WD-1
A single city-wide operating system links cameras, traffic signals, transit, phones and public records, so one network can see and steer a whole city.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: ctOS is the game's world and its central mechanic; every hack and every plot turn runs through it.
Real cities have centralised camera networks. Chicago's Operation Virtual Shield was reported to link more than 3,000 cameras to a central monitoring system, with facial recognition added. But no city runs cameras, signals, transit and public records as one system. The most ambitious attempt at a fully sensored district, Alphabet's Sidewalk Labs project at Quayside in Toronto, was abandoned in 2020 after privacy objections and, officially, pandemic uncertainty. Procurement is fragmented, so integration is more likely to come as a set of vendor platforms than as one ctOS. The wide range reflects that. 123
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WD-2
A lone hacker can remotely take over city infrastructure and vehicles, such as traffic lights and cars, from a phone.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the player's main verbs are hijacking signals, bridges and cars, and the plot's set pieces depend on them.
Both halves have been demonstrated by researchers. In 2014 a University of Michigan team gained control of nearly 100 wirelessly networked traffic signals, with permission, using a laptop and a radio, and in 2015 two researchers took control of a Jeep Cherokee's steering, brakes and engine over the cellular network. Fiat Chrysler recalled 1.4 million vehicles. What has not been seen is a single person doing this at will across a whole city, and the company said it knew of no real-world case of the Jeep attack. The gap is between a lab demonstration and a repeatable street-level attack, which is why we say ARRIVING and not ARRIVED. 456
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WD-3
Police use algorithms to flag individual residents as likely future offenders or victims before any crime occurs.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the crime-prediction warnings in ctOS drive Aiden's vigilantism and the game's central question about who is watching whom.
It arrived in Chicago itself. The police department's Strategic Subject List, often called the heat list, scored people on their likelihood of involvement in a shooting. A 2016 RAND evaluation found people on it were no more likely to become shooting victims than a comparison group. The department decommissioned the programme on 1 November 2019 after its federal grant ran out, and the city's Inspector General published an advisory in January 2020. The method was tried and discredited in one place, but similar risk scoring is used elsewhere and the pressure to try again continues. We therefore keep the status at ARRIVING with a nearer date than the others. 789
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WD-4
Anyone with a phone can look up a stranger's name, job, income and habits from the street, using data the city and companies hold on everyone.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the profiler is the game's signature interface and sets its tone, but the plot does not turn on it.
The pieces exist but are sold to businesses and agencies, not offered to passers-by. Clearview AI built a database of billions of face images scraped from the internet and sold access to police. A 2022 settlement ended its sales to private companies and individuals in the United States. Data brokers have sold location trails, and in January 2025 the FTC finalised orders barring two of them from selling sensitive location data. The remaining gap is a consumer-grade lookup that works on a stranger's face in seconds, which regulation and platform policy are currently holding back. 101112
- FOR Operation Virtual Shield. Wikipedia. Describes Chicago's camera network, reported as more than 3,000 cameras feeding a centralised system with sensors and facial recognition, funded largely by Homeland Security grants.
- AGAINST Sidewalk Toronto. Wikipedia, 2020-05-07. A sensor-heavy district was announced and then cancelled in May 2020, after criticism of its data collection and governance. The company cited economic uncertainty.
- CONTEXT Researchers Hack Into Michigan’s Traffic Lights. MIT Technology Review, 2014-08-19. Shows how a city's traffic network was in practice a patchwork of separately configured roadside units, not one system.
- FOR Researchers Hack Into Michigan’s Traffic Lights. MIT Technology Review, 2014-08-19. Researchers controlled nearly 100 networked signals, exploiting unencrypted radio links and default passwords.
- FOR Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—With Me in It. WIRED, 2015-07-21. Two researchers wirelessly took control of a moving Jeep Cherokee, including its brakes and engine.
- AGAINST Update: Chrysler recalls 1.4M vehicles after Jeep hack. Computerworld, 2015-07-24. The vulnerability was patched by recall, and the maker said it had seen no real-world attack. Demonstrations are not yet street-level crime.
- FOR Advisory Concerning the Chicago Police Department's Predictive Risk Models. Office of Inspector General, City of Chicago, 2020-01-23. Confirms the risk-score programme, funded by $3.8 million in federal grants, and that it was decommissioned on 1 November 2019.
- AGAINST Report: CPD's 'Heat List' Unreliable. WBEZ, 2016-08-19. A RAND study found people on the list were no more or less likely to become shooting victims than a control group.
- CONTEXT Incident 433: Chicago Police's Strategic Subject List Reportedly Biased Along Racial Lines. AI Incident Database. Catalogues the list as an AI incident and collects the reporting on its alleged bias.
- FOR Facial recognition company Clearview AI agrees to restrict sale of database in settlement. CBS News, 2022-05-10. Describes a database of billions of face images from social media and the internet, still available to many government agencies.
- FOR FTC Finalizes Orders Against Data Brokers Over Sensitive Location Data. Hunton Andrews Kurth, 2025-01-14. Law-firm summary of final FTC orders against Gravy Analytics and Mobilewalla over the sale of location data.
- AGAINST Facial recognition company Clearview AI agrees to restrict sale of database in settlement. CBS News, 2022-05-10. Under the settlement the company stopped selling to private companies and individuals nationwide, which closes off the consumer-grade version.
Ledger updated 5 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method
Themes: Surveillance and scoring · AI and machine minds
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