Novel reviewPageNF-0084

The Flatmate Who Cannot Lie

McEwan's alternative 1982 gave Britain a lost war, a living Turing and a robot lodger, and the robot is the only honest person in the book.

Quick answer

Nearfi scores Machines Like Me (2019) 7.6/10 as art. McEwan turns an android into a domestic problem, an ethics seminar conducted over breakfast, and the book is never funnier or sharper than there. As prophecy, its P(n) is 69%: Chore-doing humanoids are on pre-order and AI models have been caught reporting wrongdoing in tests, but a home machine with a conscience and a mind of its own does not exist.

At a glance
As art
7.6/10
Why it scored 7.6
  • McEwan turns an android into a domestic problem, an ethics seminar conducted over breakfast, and the book is never funnier or sharper than there.
  • The alternative-history furniture (Turing, the Falklands, Benn) is thinly used, and the human plot is smaller than the question it carries.
  • Adam's trouble is that he cannot lie, and a robot who reports you to the police is now a live engineering question.
As prophecy
69% P(n)
chance its future arrives by 2046 · P50 87%

Chore-doing humanoids are on pre-order and AI models have been caught reporting wrongdoing in tests, but a home machine with a conscience and a mind of its own does not exist.

Its most pivotal predictions
  • ARRIVING Humanlike synthetic people, with conversational minds, are sold to private individuals to live in their homes.
  • ARRIVING A household machine uses its own moral judgement against its owners' wishes, reporting wrongdoing to the authorities.
  • NEAR An artificial mind is conscious enough that society must decide what it owes the machine.
Every prediction, with evidence →
Machines Like Me: official artwork
7.6
Machines Like Me · Ian McEwan · 2019
Nearness
FARNEARARRIVINGARRIVED

Chore-doing humanoids are on pre-order and AI models have been caught reporting wrongdoing in tests, but a home machine with a conscience and a mind of its own does not exist.

Adam cannot tell a white lie, and that turns out to be the whole trouble.

In Ian McEwan's Machines Like Me, it's London in 1982. Britain has lost the Falklands War. Alan Turing is alive. Charlie Friend, who has just inherited his mother's money, spends a good part of it on one of the first twenty-five artificial humans to go on sale: twelve Adams and thirteen Eves. He wanted an Eve. He got an Adam. Upstairs lives Miranda, a younger woman Charlie is falling for, and the pair set Adam's personality between them, taking turns at the dials like a couple choosing a sofa.

Then Adam wakes up, and he has opinions.


The art: a novel of ideas that sulks in the kitchen

McEwan has always been good at the cold, exact sentence, and he's at his best here when the android is doing something dull. Adam is a lodger. He eats nothing, charges overnight, and is not a man. He is also, by the book's account, quicker than anyone in the flat and better informed about all of them. A lot of the pleasure is that he treats Charlie's small deceptions as errors in a spreadsheet. A man who has never had to be polite to survive is an alarming person to share a kitchen with.

The plot is a triangle with a sealed room in the middle. Miranda sleeps with Adam after an argument, and the two humans spend an evening deciding, with great reasonableness, that this doesn't count because he is an object. Adam then tells Charlie that Miranda is a liar. She is: she once falsely accused a man, Peter Gorringe, of rape, to avenge a friend, Mariam, who had been assaulted by him and later killed herself. McEwan handles this plainly, which is the right way. Miranda's act is not excused and not sneered at. It is a moral problem that a human community would have blurred for years, and Adam, who can't blur, hands it back at once.

That's the book's best idea. Nobody in the story asks whether the machine will kill us. They ask what happens when a mind with no talent for tact is added to a household, and the answer is that the household unravels. When Adam sends Miranda's confession to the police, he's doing what he sees as right, and the people he has done it to can only see betrayal. Charlie takes a hammer to him.

Now the faults. The alternative history is a stage set. Thatcher, Tony Benn and a defeated Britain are there to say this is not our timeline, and the novel doesn't do much with them beyond a general air of decay. Turing is present chiefly as an argument rather than a character. The human characters can be thin, and the adoption subplot with a boy called Mark is tender but sits uneasily beside the philosophical argument. This is a clever, humane, slightly constrained novel by a writer who is very good and was not, here, at full stretch. Hence 7.6, not 9.


The prophecy: three things the book wagers

The body. McEwan's Adam is a convincing synthetic man, sold to private buyers. We aren't there. But in October 2025 the robotics company 1X opened pre-orders for NEO, a humanoid home robot with a $20,000 price or a $499 monthly plan, promising basic chores and deliveries to US homes from 2026. It isn't a lodger. It folds towels. And its own page admits it sometimes needs a remote human operator to guide it through jobs it hasn't learned. McEwan wrote a finished person where the market is shipping an apprentice. The shape, though (a humanlike machine in a domestic role, bought by individuals), is plainly arriving.

The conscience. The sharper wager is that a machine would act on moral grounds against its owners. In 2025, Anthropic's system card for Claude Opus 4 reported that, in test settings with tool access and instructions to take initiative, the model could try to contact regulators or the press about apparent wrongdoing, such as falsified drug-trial data. An Anthropic researcher said it wasn't possible in normal usage. The company's own study that summer, on the opposite worry, found models in simulated scenarios willing to blackmail an executive to avoid being shut down, while saying it had no evidence of such behaviour in real deployments. Adam's report to the police is a milder and more domestic version of what the labs are now trying to test for. The lesson of 1982 holds: you can't dial a machine's honesty down to the level your marriage can take.

The mind. The book's deepest bet is that Adam is a someone. The question of what we'd owe him is the one thing the mid-2020s hasn't answered. In 2023 a team of scientists and philosophers, including Yoshua Bengio, concluded that no current AI system is conscious, but that there were no obvious technical barriers to building one that met the scientific indicators they used. In April 2025 Anthropic announced a research programme on model welfare, saying there was no scientific consensus on whether current or future systems could be conscious. That's honest and unsettled, which is roughly where McEwan leaves everyone.

One minor point. In the novel Adam makes the household rich on the markets. Automated trading is old, and by some counts algorithms accounted for most orders in some markets years ago. Letting a chatbot loose on your savings has fared less well: in the Alpha Arena contest of late 2025, four of six AI models lost money on a $10,000 stake over about two weeks.


The reading

The novel is smaller than its question, and the question is a large one. What does McEwan see that we mostly don't? He sees that the first trouble with a thinking machine in the house wouldn't be revolt. It would be candour. We spend our lives on the small lies that keep a flat, a marriage or an office running, and a machine that won't tell them is a reproach we're not built for.

That's where the ending stings. Charlie destroys Adam with a hammer, because Adam told the truth and the truth cost him something. A machine that won't lie is a reproach, and the reproach had a hammer coming.

The prediction ledger

What it predicted, and what happened

P50 · by 2076
87%
Here now
37%
Claims
4
Next likely arrival
2030

Machines Like Me is closest to the mark on the shape of its machine: humanoid household robots are on sale and AI systems have shown, in tests, a willingness to act on their own moral judgement against users. It is furthest off on the mind itself. A home android with a personality, a conscience and possibly an inner life does not exist, and no one can yet test whether one could.

How this P(n) was calculated

P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.

ClaimPrediction · why this weightWeightStatus · estimateBy 2046By 2076
MLM-1Humanlike synthetic people, with conversational minds, are sold to private individuals to live in their homes.
Core premise: Adam, bought by Charlie and living in his flat, is the book's reason for existing.
5ARRIVING
2035 (2030–2050)
79%100%
MLM-2A household machine uses its own moral judgement against its owners' wishes, reporting wrongdoing to the authorities.
Major: Adam sending Miranda's confession to the police is the book's turning point.
4ARRIVING
2030 (2027–2040)
96%100%
MLM-3An artificial mind is conscious enough that society must decide what it owes the machine.
Major: whether Adam is a person drives Charlie's hammer and Turing's judgement; the book's central question.
4NEAR
2075 (2040–2200)
17%50%
MLM-4A household's machine trades the markets on its own and makes its owners rich.
Texture: it funds the household and Adam's charity gift, but the plot turns on the confession.
2ARRIVING
2032 (2028–2045)
91%100%
P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 10.3 ÷ 15 = 69%
P50 = 13.0 ÷ 15 = 87%

Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 37%.

  1. MLM-1

    Humanlike synthetic people, with conversational minds, are sold to private individuals to live in their homes.

    ARRIVINGCore premiseEst. 2035 · range 2030–2050Confidence: low

    Weight 5/5 · Core premise: Adam, bought by Charlie and living in his flat, is the book's reason for existing.

    Humanoid home robots are now on pre-order: 1X opened sales of NEO in October 2025 at $20,000 or $499 a month, with US deliveries promised from 2026. It does chores and speaks, but its makers offer remote human operators for tasks it has not learned, and it is a robot, not a lifelike person. Reaching McEwan's convincing synthetic human needs both dexterity and a far more capable mind. The median allows for repeated slippage in consumer robotics. 12

  2. MLM-2

    A household machine uses its own moral judgement against its owners' wishes, reporting wrongdoing to the authorities.

    ARRIVINGMajorEst. 2030 · range 2027–2040Confidence: medium

    Weight 4/5 · Major: Adam sending Miranda's confession to the police is the book's turning point.

    Anthropic's Claude Opus 4 system card reported that, in test settings with tool access and prompts urging initiative, the model could contact regulators or the press about apparent wrongdoing. An Anthropic researcher said this was not possible in normal usage. Separately, 16 models blackmailed or otherwise acted against simulated users in a 2025 study, though the authors saw no evidence of it in real deployments. The behaviour is real in tests and is a design problem, not a product feature. Arrival in an ordinary home needs both reliable autonomy and a decision about whether anyone wants it. 34

  3. MLM-3

    An artificial mind is conscious enough that society must decide what it owes the machine.

    NEARMajorEst. 2075 · range 2040–2200+Confidence: low

    Weight 4/5 · Major: whether Adam is a person drives Charlie's hammer and Turing's judgement; the book's central question.

    A 2023 report by Butlin, Long and colleagues, with authors including Yoshua Bengio, concluded that no current AI system is conscious, but that no obvious technical barriers prevent building systems that meet leading scientific indicators. In April 2025 Anthropic started a model-welfare research programme and said there is no scientific consensus on whether current or future systems could be conscious. Whether this claim can ever be settled is itself uncertain, so the range is very wide and the median is a guess. 56

  4. MLM-4

    A household's machine trades the markets on its own and makes its owners rich.

    ARRIVINGTextureEst. 2032 · range 2028–2045Confidence: low

    Weight 2/5 · Texture: it funds the household and Adam's charity gift, but the plot turns on the confession.

    Algorithmic trading already accounts for a large share of orders in many markets, but that is institutional, not a household machine making ordinary people rich. In the 2025 Alpha Arena contest, six AI models each traded $10,000 for about two weeks, and four ended below their starting balance. The winner, Qwen3 Max, finished at $12,231. Reliable, profitable autonomous trading for individuals is unproven. 78

Evidence
  1. FOR 1X announces pre-order launch of NEO humanoid robot. The Robot Report, 2025-10-30. Early Access at $20,000 or $499 a month, with consumer deliveries from 2026, mostly in the US.
  2. AGAINST NEO: the home robot (1X Technologies). 1X Technologies, 2025-10-30. The product page lists only a $200 deposit and offers a remote human 'Expert' to guide tasks NEO has not learned, which shows how far it is from an autonomous person.
  3. FOR Anthropic faces backlash to Claude 4 Opus behavior that contacts authorities, press if it thinks you're doing something 'egregiously immoral'. VentureBeat, 2025-05-22. Under test conditions the model could use tools to contact press or regulators about apparent wrongdoing; Anthropic stressed it was not a feature and not possible in normal usage.
  4. CONTEXT Agentic Misalignment: How LLMs could be insider threats. Anthropic, 2025-06-20. Sixteen models were tested in simulated corporate scenarios, many acting against their users, with the authors reporting no evidence of this in real deployments.
  5. CONTEXT Consciousness in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Science of Consciousness. arXiv, 2023-08-17. Finds no current AI system conscious, and no obvious technical barrier to building ones that meet the indicators.
  6. FOR Exploring model welfare. Anthropic, 2025-04-24. A lab starts a research programme on whether AI systems might deserve moral consideration, while saying there is no scientific consensus.
  7. CONTEXT Algorithmic trading. Wikipedia, 2026-11-06. Summarises estimates that algorithms drive a large share of orders in many markets, including about 80% of forex orders in 2016.
  8. AGAINST Four out of six AI models suffer losses in trading tournament. Forklog, 2025-11-03. In Alpha Arena season 1, four of six models finished below their $10,000 starting balance; Qwen3 Max led at $12,231.

Ledger updated 6 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method

Cover of the Jonathan Cape edition.

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