Space
Moon bases, Mars settlements, orbital debris and planetary defence: the near future above our heads.
4 pieces on Nearfi: 4 reviews. Across their 18 tracked predictions, 3 have arrived, 3 are arriving, 8 are near, 3 are far off and 1 went another way. The average P(n) is 60%. Closest to now: DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test at 95%. Furthest: Red Mars at 41%.
- ARRIVED A spacecraft can measurably change the motion of an asteroid by hitting it (the kinetic impactor). DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test · 2022
- ARRIVED Debris from a destroyed satellite forces crews in orbit to take emergency action. Gravity · 2021
- ARRIVING An AI system helps run a remote crewed station and serves as the crew's main companion, holding natural conversations and responding with apparent empathy. Moon
- ARRIVING Private and transnational interests, not governments, drive settlement while the law lags behind. Red Mars
- ARRIVED A Chinese crewed space station operates in orbit, and its capsule can serve as a lifeboat. Gravity · 2021
- NEAR The outcome of a deflection can be predicted well enough in advance to plan one against a real threat. DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test · est. 2028
- ARRIVING An agreed international process exists to decide on, fund and launch a deflection before an impact. DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test · est. 2032
- NEAR Helium-3 is extracted from lunar regolith and shipped to Earth for sale to paying customers. Moon · est. 2033
- NEAR Most asteroids big enough to devastate a region are found years or decades before they could hit. DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test · est. 2035
- NEAR A real deflection mission can be designed, built and launched within the warning time a newly found asteroid would give. DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test · est. 2038
The guide: Sci-Fi About Space: 4 Stories About Mars, the Moon, Orbit and an Asteroid →
The First Hundred Are Late
Kim Stanley Robinson sent his colonists to Mars in 2026 and spent six hundred pages on the part we skip, which is who gets to decide what happens when they arrive.
The Company Keeps You
Duncan Jones's five-million-dollar debut got the mineral, the payroll and the machine right, and the machine is the only one who comes out of it well.
The Only Rehearsal
NASA hit an asteroid on purpose in 2022 and it worked better than anyone had said it would. This month a European probe arrives to find out why, and the harder gaps in planetary defence turn out to be before and after the rocket.
Ninety Minutes Is Not a Cascade
Cuarón's Gravity compressed the slow disaster of orbital debris into a single bad afternoon. The real version is quieter, and it has already started.
More themes: AI and machine minds · Surveillance and scoring · Climate and scarcity · Pandemics and collapse · Borders and migration · Clones and genetics · Grief and technology · Memory · Work