The Loudest Voice in the City
Warren Ellis and Darick Robertson invented a future of baroque gadgets and rented attention, and only the attention has turned up on schedule.
Nearfi scores Transmetropolitan (1997) 8.2/10 as art. Robertson's crammed, joke-laden street scenes make the City feel lived in, and Ellis's fury gives the early volumes real momentum. As prophecy, its P(n) is 81%: The columnist-as-personality, camera eyewear and record journalist deaths are here, but the household Maker is not, and no single column has felled a president.
- Robertson's crammed, joke-laden street scenes make the City feel lived in, and Ellis's fury gives the early volumes real momentum.
- Across 60 issues the rage hardens into sermon, and the villain exists mostly to confirm what Spider already thought.
- Its sharpest prophecy is about who delivers the news, not any gadget: one loud personality, streamed to everyone.
The columnist-as-personality, camera eyewear and record journalist deaths are here, but the household Maker is not, and no single column has felled a president.
- ARRIVED Reporting on the powerful is physically dangerous, and journalists are threatened and killed because of their work while press freedom and its finances weaken.
- ARRIVED A single columnist's personality is the product: his writing is streamed to a whole city, and individuals rather than institutions command much of the public's news attention.
- ARRIVED Reporters wear glasses with a built-in camera that capture what they see.
The columnist-as-personality, camera eyewear and record journalist deaths are here, but the household Maker is not, and no single column has felled a president.
A man who hates people is hired to write about them. That's the engine of Transmetropolitan, and Warren Ellis never lets it idle.
Spider Jerusalem is a gonzo journalist who has retired to live as a hermit. A publishing deal drags him back down into the City, a sprawl of advertising, noise and bodies, and he takes a column at The Word under his old editor, Mitchell Royce. The comic ran for 60 issues, from July 1997 to September 2002, written by Ellis and drawn by Darick Robertson. It started under DC's short-lived Helix imprint and moved to Vertigo from issue 13. Spider owes a good deal to Hunter S. Thompson, and Ellis has said so. The president he ends up fighting is the Smiler, Gary Callahan, a man Spider decides wants power only to hurt people. The Beast, the incumbent, he first takes for the lesser evil.
It's a comic about a newspaper columnist. In 1997. Read that sentence again from the far end of 2026.
The art: every wall is talking
Robertson's City is the real star of the early issues. Every surface has a sign on it, every sign has a joke in it, and the jokes are in the background where you'll miss them on the first read. A street scene is a pile of detail: holographic ads, news broadcasts, people who have rebuilt their bodies, the mess underfoot. In the first collected volume, a reviewer at Reactor described the place as "a wall of color, smells, noise, advertisements and people", which is about right. I can't think of a future more crowded.
The character design is better still. Spider is a thin, shirtless, bald man in a black coat and mismatched glasses, one lens green and rectangular, the other red and round. He is ugly in a way you'd want on a poster. The glasses do double duty as a still camera. The Maker, a household machine that rebuilds raw matter into food and clothing, is a wonderful ruined appliance, and it is as likely to misfire as to deliver.
The weaknesses are the weaknesses of anger, sustained. Over six years the column becomes a pulpit, the supporting cast (his two assistants, Channon and Yelena, are more interesting than the sermons) get less to do, and the villain exists to confirm what Spider already thought. It is still among the best comics of its decade. It just got louder than it needed to be.
The prophecy: the news that talks back
Four bets, and it's the unglamorous ones that landed.
The columnist as the whole news. In the comic, Royce sells Spider's column and it's streamed across the City, and Spider's persona is the product. In 1997, with most Western readers still taking their news from newspapers and an evening bulletin, that looked like a cartoon. In 2024, Pew found that 21% of US adults regularly got news from news influencers, individuals with big followings rather than institutions, and 37% of those aged 18 to 29. The Reuters Institute's 2025 report found a turning point: more Americans (54%) used social and video networks for news in a week than TV (50%) or news sites and apps (48%), for the first time. One podcaster, Joe Rogan, was seen discussing news by 22% of the US sample in the week after the inauguration. It's a Spider economy. What Ellis didn't draw is the difference in backing: Spider has an editor and a newspaper behind him, while most of these voices answer to nobody.
The risk of the job. Spider is constantly threatened, and the comic assumes that reporting on the powerful gets reporters hurt. This wasn't a prediction so much as a refusal to look away, but it has aged without any help. The Committee to Protect Journalists counted at least 124 journalists and media workers killed in 2024, its deadliest year on record, and at least 24 of them deliberately murdered because of their work. Reporters Without Borders, in 2025, rated the global state of press freedom "difficult" for the first time in the index's history, with the economic indicator at its lowest ever. The comic got the danger right and the economics worse than it knew: the newsrooms that pay to protect a reporter are the ones shrinking.
The glasses. Spider's shades carry a camera. The comic plays it as a throwaway detail; it's also a fairly exact description of a product now on sale. EssilorLuxottica reported selling over seven million Meta-branded smart glasses in 2025, with a 12-megapixel camera and the option to go live to Facebook or Instagram. The comic's version came with the same anxiety attached. Google ended its Glass Explorer programme in 2015, after a run in which privacy worries and the nickname "Glassholes" dogged it, and Google X's Astro Teller later said the project had been given too much attention. The wearable camera isn't a future technology any more. The open argument is who gets to be recorded by it.
The Maker. Here, Ellis misses, or at least is early by a lot. A machine that recombines matter into food and clothes from a base block, or from trash for the poor, is nowhere in sight. The nearest thing is the robot that prints walls: ICON's Vulcan system is building 100 homes at Wolf Ranch in Texas, structural walls only, the roof still put on by people. The 2016 Nobel Prize in Chemistry press release called the molecular motor as undeveloped as the electric motor was in the 1830s. So the Maker stays a wish.
The reading
Transmetropolitan is a lousy way to learn what the future will look like and a very good way to learn what it will feel like. The gadgets in the City are mostly jokes. The attention economy at the centre of it isn't. Ellis understood that the real novelty of the near future would be the person with the loudest voice and the nearest camera, and that nobody would have much idea who ought to be accountable to whom.
Spider says he'd like to change the world with a column. The years since have given a lot of people that option, and the column didn't need a newspaper to carry it. What most of them haven't had is an editor like Royce. The comic's grimmest forecast isn't any of its machines. It's the quiet gap, in 2026, where the editor used to be.
What it predicted, and what happened
Transmetropolitan is most prescient about attention: news delivered by individual personalities, reporters in danger, and cameras worn on the face are all here. Its household matter-recombining Maker is not, and the comic's future remains richer in gadgets than in anything the real 2026 has built.
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRANS-1 | A single columnist's personality is the product: his writing is streamed to a whole city, and individuals rather than institutions command much of the public's news attention. Major: Spider's column and its enormous audience are how he fights the powerful, and drive the plot. |
4 | ARRIVED arrived 2024 | 100% | 100% |
| TRANS-2 | Reporting on the powerful is physically dangerous, and journalists are threatened and killed because of their work while press freedom and its finances weaken. Core premise: the story is a reporter at war with power, and the threat to him is constant. |
5 | ARRIVED arrived 1997 | 100% | 100% |
| TRANS-3 | Reporters wear glasses with a built-in camera that capture what they see. Supporting: Spider's signature glasses shape how he reports, but the plot does not depend on them. |
3 | ARRIVED arrived 2023 | 100% | 100% |
| TRANS-4 | A household machine, the Maker, recombines raw matter or waste into food, clothing and other goods on demand. Supporting: the Maker is a recurring part of Spider's daily life and a source of gags, but no plot turns on it. |
3 | NEAR 2075 (2055–2130) | 7% | 51% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 12.2 ÷ 15 = 81% | |||||
| P50 = 13.5 ÷ 15 = 90% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 80%.
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TRANS-1
A single columnist's personality is the product: his writing is streamed to a whole city, and individuals rather than institutions command much of the public's news attention.
Weight 4/5 · Major: Spider's column and its enormous audience are how he fights the powerful, and drive the plot.
In the US, news influencers are individuals with large followings, often without a news-organisation background. About one in five adults used them regularly in 2024, and in 2025 social and video networks overtook TV as a weekly news source for the first time. The comic's columnist still works for a newspaper, and the real audience is split across many voices rather than one city-wide stream, so this is a match in kind rather than in form. 123
-
TRANS-2
Reporting on the powerful is physically dangerous, and journalists are threatened and killed because of their work while press freedom and its finances weaken.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the story is a reporter at war with power, and the threat to him is constant.
This was true when the comic began and is now worse by the measures that exist. The Committee to Protect Journalists recorded at least 124 journalists and media workers killed in 2024, its highest total, and 24 deliberately murdered because of their work; many other deaths were in crossfire. RSF's 2025 index classed the global situation as difficult for the first time and recorded its lowest economic indicator. It is a continuity more than a forecast, and the press-freedom measures are not a measure of any single leader. 456
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TRANS-3
Reporters wear glasses with a built-in camera that capture what they see.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: Spider's signature glasses shape how he reports, but the plot does not depend on them.
Camera eyewear was sold from 2013 in Google's Glass Explorer programme, which ended in 2015 after privacy complaints and weak uptake. Mass-market sales arrived with Ray-Ban Meta glasses in 2023 and EssilorLuxottica reported over seven million Meta-branded units sold in 2025. The real products capture photos and video and can go live to social platforms. They have not made a generation of journalists, and social acceptance remains the open question. 789
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TRANS-4
A household machine, the Maker, recombines raw matter or waste into food, clothing and other goods on demand.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the Maker is a recurring part of Spider's daily life and a source of gags, but no plot turns on it.
Additive manufacturing now makes things from a limited set of feedstocks, such as ICON's printed concrete walls at Wolf Ranch in Texas, where the roof is still fitted by people. A general-purpose appliance that rebuilds arbitrary matter into food and fabric would need control of material at molecular scale, which is far beyond present machines. The 2016 Nobel committee likened molecular motors to the electric motor of the 1830s. We set a wide, late range, and this may never happen. 1011
- FOR Americans' Experiences with Social Media News Influencers. Pew Research Center, 2024-11-18. 21% of US adults regularly get news from news influencers, rising to 37% of those aged 18 to 29, in a survey of more than 10,000 adults.
- FOR Digital News Report 2025: Executive Summary and Key Findings. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, 2025-06-17. 54% of US respondents used social and video for news weekly, ahead of TV (50%) and websites (48%) for the first time; 22% saw Joe Rogan on news in a week.
- AGAINST Digital News Report 2025: Executive Summary and Key Findings. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, 2025-06-17. Across markets 40% say they sometimes or often avoid the news and overall trust is 40%, so the audience is wary rather than captive.
- FOR 2024 is deadliest year for journalists in CPJ history; almost 70% killed by Israel. Committee to Protect Journalists, 2025-02-12. At least 124 journalists and media workers killed in 2024; at least 24 deliberately killed because of their work. A later correction lowers the Israel share to 60%.
- FOR RSF World Press Freedom Index 2025: economic fragility a leading threat to press freedom. Reporters Without Borders, 2025-05-02. The global situation is classed as difficult for the first time, and the economic indicator is at its lowest point in the index's history.
- CONTEXT 2024 is deadliest year for journalists in CPJ history; almost 70% killed by Israel. Committee to Protect Journalists, 2025-02-12. CPJ says many of the deaths were in crossfire or on dangerous assignments, not deliberate attacks, so the record is not all targeting of reporters.
- FOR Introducing the New Ray-Ban | Meta Smart Glasses Collection. Meta, 2023-09-27. A 12 MP camera, 1080p video, and live streaming to Facebook or Instagram from the glasses.
- FOR Meta Sold Over 7 Million Smart Glasses Last Year, Effectively Tripling Sales in 2025 Alone. Road to VR, 2026-02-12. EssilorLuxottica's fourth-quarter 2025 results reported over seven million Meta-branded smart glasses sold last year.
- AGAINST Glasshole daddy admits Google Glass was a bad idea. The Register, 2015-03-18. Google X's Astro Teller said Glass got too much attention; privacy concerns and the Glassholes label hurt its image and Explorer was suspended.
- FOR Lennar and ICON Begin 100-Home 3D-Printed Community in Texas. Pro Builder, 2022-11-10. ICON's Vulcan system prints the structural walls of 100 homes; a partial, single-material version of machine-made goods.
- CONTEXT The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2016: Press Release. Nobel Prize Outreach / Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2016-10-05. The molecular motor is described as at the stage of the electric motor in the 1830s, showing how early machine control of matter at that scale is.
Ledger updated 5 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method
Cover of Transmetropolitan Vol. 1: Back on the Street, Vertigo / DC Comics. Via Open Library.
Themes: Surveillance and scoring
