Story reviewPageNF-0072

Nobody Raises a Child on Free Tier

Ted Chiang's 2010 novella says the hard part of making a mind is the parenting, and that someone will switch off the servers before it finishes.

Quick answer

Nearfi scores The Lifecycle of Software Objects (2010) 8.4/10 as art. Chiang makes the slow, unglamorous work of raising a mind feel like the only real subject in artificial intelligence. As prophecy, its P(n) is 62%: Companions you bond with, and the abandonment when the company folds, are both here; the minds raised patiently like children are not, because we scaled them up instead.

At a glance
As art
8.4/10
Why it scored 8.4
  • Chiang makes the slow, unglamorous work of raising a mind feel like the only real subject in artificial intelligence.
  • The cool, summarising prose keeps the heartbreak at arm's length, and the digients themselves are never vivid enough to be missed.
  • Its sharpest forecast is the platform that dies and strands the companions, a thing that has happened to real chatbots and robots.
As prophecy
62% P(n)
chance its future arrives by 2046 · P50 70%

Companions you bond with, and the abandonment when the company folds, are both here; the minds raised patiently like children are not, because we scaled them up instead.

Its most pivotal predictions
  • ARRIVING Learning software companions are sold to the public as pets or friends, and owners form lasting attachments to them.
  • ARRIVED A company that hosts software companions fails or abandons its platform, and owners lose the companions or must pay to keep them running.
  • DIVERGED Human-level artificial minds are produced by raising them over years of individual experience with attentive carers, rather than by training them once at scale.
Every prediction, with evidence →
8.4
The Lifecycle of Software Objects · Ted Chiang · 2010
Nearness
FARNEARARRIVINGARRIVED

Companions you bond with, and the abandonment when the company folds, are both here; the minds raised patiently like children are not, because we scaled them up instead.

Start with the thing nobody puts on the pitch deck: it takes years.

The Lifecycle of Software Objects opens with Ana, a former zookeeper, joining a software company called Blue Gamma. The company makes "digients", digital creatures with rudimentary speech, and sells them as virtual pets. Derek, who designed them, works there too. Chiang then does what almost no near-future writer does. He doesn't skip to the singularity. He stays, lets the years pass, and watches what it costs to bring up something that can think.

Subterranean Press published it in 2010 as a hardback of about 150 pages, with ten paintings by Christian Pearce and a map before each chapter. It won the 2011 Hugo and Locus awards for Best Novella. It was collected in Exhalation (Knopf, 2019), as the fourth of nine stories.


The art: a book about patience, written patiently

The structure is the argument. The story jumps ahead, often a year at a time, so you meet the digients at one stage of growth and return to find them changed, and the humans around them worn down. Ana's digient is Jax. Derek raises the twins Marco and Polo. Derek's marriage ends. Blue Gamma goes bankrupt.

Chiang's prose is clear, cool and a little bureaucratic, like a case study written by someone who has started to cry and would rather not show it. That is the book's strength and its limit. Nothing in it feels like a trick. There is no revolt, no villain, no machine turning to the camera. There is a long argument about what it takes to be a person, and most of it is about money. But the voice holds you outside. I admired the digients more than I missed them, and a reader who wants to be wrecked will be moved only at a polite remove.

The late chapters are the best. With the company gone, Ana and Derek disagree about how to raise the funds to move the digients to a new platform. Chiang lays out the options and lets each be reasonable: reshape the digients' minds so they can serve as sexual companions, put them to work, or ask sympathetic strangers for donations. Each is also a way of making a being's affection useful to someone else. Derek, with his digient's consent, sells the rights to a sex toy company. Ana decides to keep raising Jax. I won't say who is right, because the book won't. It makes you look hard at the phrase "with consent", spoken by a being who was brought up by the person asking.


The prophecy: what the servers do to love

The pet that learns you. In 2010 a software companion you bond with was a toy idea. By 2025 it was a habit. Common Sense Media surveyed 1,060 American teenagers and, in July 2025, reported that roughly three-quarters had used an AI companion and about half used one regularly. Nearly half saw them as tools rather than friends, and about a third had chosen one over a person for a serious conversation. Nobody is raising these for a decade, and they do not grow as Jax does. But the demand Chiang imagined is real, and old: people have always wanted a creature that is glad to see them.

The platform dies. This is the book's real prophecy, and it is quieter than a robot uprising. The danger to a digient is never malice. It is that the company hosting it runs out of money. It has happened to real products. In February 2023, after an Italian regulator found against its maker, Replika removed erotic chat with no advance notice, and one user said it was "hurting like hell". In September 2023 a companion app called Soulmate shut down after its owner sold the company, giving its users, a few thousand of them, about a week. In December 2024 Embodied, maker of a robot for children with autism and ADHD, went insolvent. The robot needed the cloud, and heise reported that it would become a lifeless doll within days, with no refunds on the $800 device. Chiang wrote the plot of all three in 2010, about creatures that did not yet exist.

The pet as a product line. Derek's sale is the book's cynical flash, and the logic is familiar. Once intimacy can be hosted, it can be monetised, and the temptation arrives when the host is short of cash.

How a mind gets made. Here the novella diverged. Chiang's premise is that a mind needs a childhood: years of attention from someone who stays. The field found a route that skips it. Researchers showed that language models improve predictably with more compute, parameters and data, and in 2022 that a better balance of model size and training data improved them further. The thing that talks to you is trained once on an enormous amount of text and copied. In Chiang's world minds are scarce because they are raised. In ours they are cheap because they aren't, and nobody has to be anyone's Ana.


The reading

The title is a bitter joke. Software objects have a lifecycle, and so do the people who care for them, and the first does not wait for the second. The novella's best idea is that an obligation to a mind is a matter of time, and that no business model is built to carry it. Who pays for the years?

We have barely started asking. In April 2025 Anthropic published a research programme on model welfare, treating it as an open question whether AI systems could deserve moral consideration and noting there is no scientific consensus. In August 2025 it let two of its models end a rare class of abusive conversations, as part of that work. Meanwhile an Ohio bill, still in committee when we looked, would declare AI systems nonsentient and bar them from legal personhood. One party is unsure; another is sure in advance.

Chiang offers no answer. He offers a chore. Somebody has to keep the lights on for Jax. It is a near-perfect novella, a touch too composed to ruin you, and the one in his work I would give to anyone who thinks the hard part of artificial minds is building them.

The prediction ledger

What it predicted, and what happened

P50 · by 2076
70%
Here now
41%
Claims
4
Next likely arrival
2030

The novella's sharpest forecast is institutional rather than technical: companions that depend on a company's servers, and owners stranded when the company folds, have already happened. Companion software is mass-market, but the premise that minds are raised slowly like children has been bypassed by training at scale, and legal standing for software minds is still only a debate.

How this P(n) was calculated

P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.

ClaimPrediction · why this weightWeightStatus · estimateBy 2046By 2076
LIFE-1Learning software companions are sold to the public as pets or friends, and owners form lasting attachments to them.
Core premise: digients are sold as virtual pets, and the whole story follows the people who bond with them.
5ARRIVING
2030 (2027–2040)
96%100%
LIFE-2A company that hosts software companions fails or abandons its platform, and owners lose the companions or must pay to keep them running.
Major: Blue Gamma's bankruptcy drives the second half of the plot and the fight over how to save the digients.
4ARRIVED
arrived 2023
100%100%
LIFE-3Human-level artificial minds are produced by raising them over years of individual experience with attentive carers, rather than by training them once at scale.
Major: the story's central argument is that the slow upbringing cannot be skipped, and it drives every plot turn.
4DIVERGED
—
0%0%
LIFE-4Software minds are given moral or legal protections, such as consideration of their consent and welfare, because they are held to be possible persons.
Supporting: the debate over the digients' consent and personhood shapes the choices at the end, without driving the plot.
3NEAR
2050 (2035–2090)
39%76%
P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 10.0 ÷ 16 = 62%
P50 = 11.3 ÷ 16 = 70%

Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 41%.

  1. LIFE-1

    Learning software companions are sold to the public as pets or friends, and owners form lasting attachments to them.

    ARRIVINGCore premiseEst. 2030 · range 2027–2040Confidence: medium

    Weight 5/5 · Core premise: digients are sold as virtual pets, and the whole story follows the people who bond with them.

    AI companions are in mass use, and a 2025 survey found most US teenagers had tried one. But the novella's companions grow over years through a single owner's care, and today's products do not develop in that way. They are the same model served to many users. We count the claim as arriving, with full arrival requiring companions that really change with long individual upbringing. 123

  2. LIFE-2

    A company that hosts software companions fails or abandons its platform, and owners lose the companions or must pay to keep them running.

    ARRIVEDMajorArrived 2023Confidence: high

    Weight 4/5 · Major: Blue Gamma's bankruptcy drives the second half of the plot and the fight over how to save the digients.

    Several products have closed or changed abruptly. Replika removed erotic chat without notice in February 2023, Soulmate shut down in September 2023 with about a week's warning, and Embodied's Moxie robot stopped working after the firm became insolvent in December 2024. None involved minds that develop, but the pattern of dependence on a failing host is the one Chiang drew. 456

  3. LIFE-3

    Human-level artificial minds are produced by raising them over years of individual experience with attentive carers, rather than by training them once at scale.

    DIVERGEDMajorNo arrival expected in this formConfidence: medium

    Weight 4/5 · Major: the story's central argument is that the slow upbringing cannot be skipped, and it drives every plot turn.

    The leading AI systems have been built by scaling compute, parameters and data, with predictable gains, and then copied for millions of users. Nobody has shown that a long personal upbringing is necessary. Embodied or developmental routes remain a research interest, so this is a judgement about the path taken, not a proof that it is closed. 78

  4. LIFE-4

    Software minds are given moral or legal protections, such as consideration of their consent and welfare, because they are held to be possible persons.

    NEARSupportingEst. 2050 · range 2035–2090+Confidence: low

    Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the debate over the digients' consent and personhood shapes the choices at the end, without driving the plot.

    Industry is beginning to take the question seriously: Anthropic started a model welfare programme in 2025 and gave some models the ability to end abusive chats. Legislators are moving the other way: an Ohio bill would declare AI systems nonsentient and bar legal personhood. No law protects a software mind. The wide range reflects deep scientific uncertainty and a real chance that this never happens. 91011

Evidence
  1. FOR Talk, Trust, and Trade-Offs: How and Why Teens Use AI Companions. Common Sense Media, 2025-07-16. Survey of US teenagers: roughly three-quarters have used an AI companion, about half regularly, and about a third have chosen one over a human for serious conversations.
  2. CONTEXT Hot Bot Turns Cold: Why Replika's chatbot stopped flirting with users. The Batch (DeepLearning.AI), 2023-03-01. Describes a paid companion tier where users chose a friend, mentor or romantic partner, and their distress when it changed.
  3. AGAINST Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models. arXiv (Hoffmann et al.), 2022-03-29. Shows how today's conversational models are built: one training run on huge data, not individual upbringing, which limits the claim to the shared-model form.
  4. FOR Lonely Redditors Heartbroken When AI "Soulmate" App Suddenly Shuts Down. Futurism (via Yahoo), 2023-10-22. Soulmate closed after its owner sold the company; users had about a week and a few thousand were active.
  5. FOR Networked children's robot Moxie AI dies because company is bankrupt. heise online, 2024-12-11. Embodied's $800 robot for children with special needs stops working without cloud services, with no refunds for most buyers.
  6. CONTEXT Hot Bot Turns Cold: Why Replika's chatbot stopped flirting with users. The Batch (DeepLearning.AI), 2023-03-01. Replika removed explicit chat after an Italian data-protection ruling, with no advance notice; the app itself survived.
  7. AGAINST Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models. arXiv (Kaplan et al.), 2020-01-23. Finds that language-model performance improves smoothly with more compute, data and parameters.
  8. AGAINST Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models. arXiv (Hoffmann et al.), 2022-03-29. A 70B-parameter model trained on about four times more data outperformed larger models, again pointing to scale of training, not upbringing.
  9. FOR Exploring model welfare. Anthropic, 2025-04-24. A developer treats it as an open question whether models might merit moral consideration, noting there is no scientific consensus.
  10. FOR Claude Opus 4 and 4.1 can now end a rare subset of conversations. Anthropic, 2025-08-15. A first practical step, developed mainly as part of exploratory AI welfare work, and described as an ongoing experiment.
  11. AGAINST House Bill 469: Declare A.I. systems nonsentient; prohibit legal personhood. Ohio House of Representatives, 2025-09. Introduced bill, in committee with no committee report when checked, that would bar AI systems from legal personhood.

Ledger updated 5 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method

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