The Boy Who Couldn't Be Returned
Spielberg and Kubrick imagined a child built to love and a company that sold him with no way out. In 2024 a real one went bust, and its robots stopped working for the children who owned them.

Nearfi scores A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001) 8.1/10 as art. The first hour, in which a family decides whether to bond with a machine that is built to bond back, is as good as Spielberg gets. As prophecy, its P(n) is 41%: Companion machines that children are encouraged to love are on sale, and one company has already switched them off; the film's flooded cities and licensed births have not followed.
- The first hour, in which a family decides whether to bond with a machine that is built to bond back, is as good as Spielberg gets.
- The last act runs on past two endings, and the far-future "Specialists" explain too much in too soft a voice.
- It saw that the danger of a loving machine lies in the contract around it, and in who can end it.
Companion machines that children are encouraged to love are on sale, and one company has already switched them off; the film's flooded cities and licensed births have not followed.
- ARRIVING A company sells a child-shaped companion robot designed to form a lasting emotional bond with a family and to be loved in return.
- ARRIVING Humanoid robots (mechas) are common household and service workers.
- FAR Sea-level rise from global warming has drowned the lower parts of major coastal cities, including New York.
Companion machines that children are encouraged to love are on sale, and one company has already switched them off; the film's flooded cities and licensed births have not followed.
In December 2024 a company called Embodied shut down. It had sold a small robot called Moxie, priced at $799 and marketed as a companion for children, and Moxie needed the company's cloud to talk. When the cloud went, the robots stopped working, and most owners were refused refunds. The incident is now in the OECD's database of AI harms, with a note that children who had bonded with their robots were left distressed.
Twenty-three years earlier, Steven Spielberg had filmed something very like it. It just had a better score.
A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001) is a film about a product launch. Cybertronics has built David (Haley Joel Osment), a mecha, which is the film's word for a robot, in the shape of an eleven-year-old boy. He is the first of his kind built to love. Monica and Henry Swinton (Frances O'Connor and Sam Robards) get him on trial because their real son, Martin, lies in suspended animation with an incurable illness. The film makes clear that the bonding process is a one-way door. Once Monica starts it, David will love her for good, and if she changes her mind the only option is to send him back to be destroyed.
She starts it anyway. The film's best minutes are the ones in which she does.
The art: a loud film with a very quiet middle
Spielberg's film is credited to his own screenplay, from a screen story by Ian Watson, adapting Brian Aldiss's 1969 short story "Supertoys Last All Summer Long". Stanley Kubrick had owned the project for decades, hired a line of writers, and handed it to Spielberg in 1995, in part because he didn't think computer animation could yet make a convincing David. Kubrick died in 1999 and Spielberg dedicated the finished film to him. Spielberg has said that the sweeter, fairy-tale material came from Kubrick's drafts and the darker material (the Flesh Fair, for one) was his. The film's reputation has spent twenty years as a quarrel about which of them is to blame for what. That quarrel is more fun than the film's own seams, which show only in the last half hour.
The first hour has none. It is a chamber drama in a bright, tidy house, and it is shot, by Janusz Kamiński, in bleached light that makes the Swintons look as if they're living in a showroom. Osment is astonishing, and the performance is a feat of subtraction: he holds his face still a beat longer than a child would and smiles the way someone does who has been told to. Because we know the smile is manufactured, it hurts more. O'Connor has the harder part. Monica isn't cruel. She is tired, grieving and short of options, and she does what a lot of tired, grieving people do with a technology that offers to fix something, which is to say yes and think about it later.
Then comes the wandering. David, abandoned in a forest of scrap, sets out to find the Blue Fairy from Pinocchio so he can be made real. He's joined by Teddy and by Gigolo Joe, a mecha prostitute played by Jude Law, who studied Fred Astaire and Gene Kelly for the part and walks like a man who has memorised a better century. Joe is the film's one pure pleasure. The Flesh Fair, a travelling circus where obsolete mechas are destroyed before a baying crowd, is its one moment of real nerve. The crowd turns on the ringmaster, Lord Johnson-Johnson (Brendan Gleeson), when David begs for his life, because he looks too much like a boy.
The film overstays, though. After David is trapped beneath the sea at Coney Island, praying to a statue, it jumps two thousand years, past the apparent end of humanity, to a world run by thin, patient machines that rebuild Monica for one day only. John Williams scores it beautifully, and the film earned an Oscar nomination for him. It is, though, an ending that arrives twice and explains itself both times. That is the gap between 8 and 9.
The prophecy: the contract, not the child
The film makes four bets. Two are still ahead of us, and one has been overtaken by events. The fourth is the one that matters.
The flooded world. David's America lies in the 22nd century, after global warming has raised the sea and drowned coastal cities. The film's New York is a drowned ruin. The Met Office puts the measured global rise at about 20 centimetres between 1901 and 2018, and says the rate has accelerated. New York City's own climate panel expects another foot to almost two feet by the 2050s, which is a nuisance and a bill but not a lost city. The film's sea is real, and its timetable is long.
The licence to have a child. In the film, resources are scarce, and couples need permission to have children, which is why a mecha child has a market at all. Here history swerved. In 2021 China, which had run the largest birth-limiting programme in history, amended its law to allow three children, and the UN now expects the world's population to peak in the mid-2080s. In more than half of all countries, the birth rate is already below the level that keeps a population steady. The problem of the 2020s is too few children, and the mecha parent-substitute is the film's one idea that history has argued with.
The household mecha. The film's world is full of humanoid machines that serve, and in 2025 the real ones began to be sold. The firm 1X opened pre-orders for a $20,000 home humanoid, NEO, and the Wall Street Journal reported that its demonstration was piloted by a human in a headset. That is a sentence to hang on the wall: the robot butler is a person in another room. A.I. doesn't see that coming, but it understands the rest. Joe and the scrap-heap mechas are all cheap labour on legs.
The loving child. This is the bet that landed. The film's premise is a product built to be loved and to love back, sold into homes with an emotional tie that the buyer cannot easily return. In 2025 Common Sense Media found that nearly three in four American teenagers had used an AI companion and half used them regularly. California then passed a law, SB 243, setting the first rules in the US for how such chatbots treat minors. Nobody has built a David. But we've built the thing his story is about, which is the attachment, and we sell it as a subscription.
That last word matters. The film's villain isn't a robot and isn't quite Monica either. It's the arrangement that lets a family accept a child-shaped thing's love, discover it is too much, and have no humane way out. The film gives a choice between the factory and the forest. Moxie's owners got a third, which was to watch the robot go quiet. No one in the story is being deliberately cruel. The cruelty is in the terms.
The reading
A.I. is better on a second viewing than a first, and far more useful now than in 2001. It has the flaws of its parents: Kubrick's chill and Spielberg's mercy sit side by side without ever shaking hands. But its argument holds. We assumed the danger of a machine that loves us would be that it wouldn't love us. The film worried about a machine that does, for ever, and about the rest of us, who may stop.
David asks one question, over and over, and it was never about whether he could love. It was whether anyone would be responsible for it. In the mid-2020s the answer from at least one maker was silence and, for most owners, no refund. The film, which looks better every year, expected more of us than that.
What it predicted, and what happened
A.I. is most prescient about its core idea: a companion built to be loved, sold into homes with an attachment that is hard to undo, which children and teenagers now form with software and small robots. Its household machines are arriving more slowly and less autonomously than shown. Its flooded cities are a long-run risk, and its licensed births ran against the demographic trend.
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI-1 | A company sells a child-shaped companion robot designed to form a lasting emotional bond with a family and to be loved in return. Core premise: David, a mecha built to love, and the cost of that love to a family, is the whole story. |
5 | ARRIVING 2035 (2029–2055) | 72% | 100% |
| AI-2 | Humanoid robots (mechas) are common household and service workers. Supporting: the mecha economy is the world David lives in and the target of the Flesh Fair. |
3 | ARRIVING 2037 (2030–2055) | 70% | 100% |
| AI-3 | Sea-level rise from global warming has drowned the lower parts of major coastal cities, including New York. Supporting: the flooded world explains the ruined Manhattan and the scarcity behind the mecha economy. |
3 | FAR 2150 (2090–2250) | 3% | 8% |
| AI-4 | Governments strictly license who may have children because the world's resources are running out. Supporting: scarcity and licensed births create the market for a mecha child. |
3 | DIVERGED — | 0% | 0% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 5.8 ÷ 14 = 41% | |||||
| P50 = 8.2 ÷ 14 = 59% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 29%.
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AI-1
A company sells a child-shaped companion robot designed to form a lasting emotional bond with a family and to be loved in return.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: David, a mecha built to love, and the cost of that love to a family, is the whole story.
Companions that children bond with are already sold, as software and as small robots. Common Sense Media found in 2025 that nearly three in four US teenagers had used an AI companion and half used them regularly. In December 2024 the maker of the $799 Moxie robot shut down and its robots stopped working, leaving children who had bonded with them distressed. What does not exist is a lifelike, physically capable child that a family treats as a member, so the claim is only partly here. The date reflects how fast conversational companions are spreading and how slowly convincing bodies are arriving. 1234
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AI-2
Humanoid robots (mechas) are common household and service workers.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the mecha economy is the world David lives in and the target of the Flesh Fair.
Home humanoids are on sale in the sense that orders are being taken. 1X opened pre-orders in 2025 for NEO at $20,000 or $500 a month, but the Wall Street Journal reported that its demonstration was piloted by a person wearing a VR headset and that it could not perform a task on its own. Figure has announced a home-oriented design without a published price or date. A humanoid that is both capable and cheap enough to be common is some years away, and the date is uncertain. 56
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AI-3
Sea-level rise from global warming has drowned the lower parts of major coastal cities, including New York.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the flooded world explains the ruined Manhattan and the scarcity behind the mecha economy.
Sea level is rising and the rate is accelerating, so flooding that is a nuisance now will get worse. But the film's drowned Manhattan is set in the 22nd century, and the projections for the 2050s are about one to two feet around New York, not permanent loss of districts. Large, lasting losses depend on ice-sheet behaviour that is uncertain and on future emissions. The Met Office describes a low-probability storyline that adds about another metre by 2100. 78
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AI-4
Governments strictly license who may have children because the world's resources are running out.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: scarcity and licensed births create the market for a mecha child.
The trend went the other way. China, which ran the most far-reaching limits on births, moved to allow three children in 2021 and removed its penalty fee for larger families. The UN's 2024 projection has world population peaking in the mid-2080s, with birth rates below replacement level in more than half of all countries and population already past its peak in 63. Governments are trying to raise birth rates. Some countries restrict surrogacy or access to fertility treatment, but these are not resource-based quotas on births. 910
- FOR Talk, Trust, and Trade-Offs: How and Why Teens Use AI Companions. Common Sense Media, 2025-07-16. Nearly three in four teens have used AI companions, and half use them regularly.
- FOR Embodied's abrupt shutdown of its Moxie AI robots (AI Incident record). OECD.AI Incidents Monitor, 2024-12-09. A company that sold $799 emotional-support robots for children shut down, and the cloud-dependent robots stopped working, distressing children who had bonded with them.
- AGAINST Comparing the value of perceived human versus AI-generated empathy. Nature Human Behaviour, 2025-06-30. Across nine studies, identical replies were valued less when labelled as AI, which limits how fully a machine can fill a human's place.
- CONTEXT First-in-the-Nation AI Chatbot Safeguards Signed into Law. Office of California State Senator Steve Padilla, 2025-10-13. California's SB 243 sets safeguards for companion chatbots and gives families a private right to sue.
- FOR Humanoid hype meets reality: 1X's $20K home robot draws skepticism and memes. Decrypt, 2025-10-29. Reports pre-orders at $20,000 or $500 a month, and a demo that was remotely operated by a human pilot.
- FOR Introducing Figure 03. Figure AI, 2025-10-09. A humanoid designed for the home, with soft materials and wireless charging. No price or availability date is given on the page.
- CONTEXT Past and future sea level rise. Met Office, 2026-11-06. Global sea level rose about 20 cm from 1901 to 2018, with the rate accelerating. A low-likelihood ice-loss storyline adds roughly another metre by 2100.
- AGAINST New Climate Projections: NYC Will Keep Getting Hotter and Wetter. The City Reporter (formerly THE CITY), 2024-01-22. The New York City Panel on Climate Change expects at least another foot, and up to almost two feet, of sea-level rise by the 2050s.
- AGAINST World Population Prospects 2024: UN projects world population to peak within this century. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2024-07-11. Population is expected to peak in the mid-2080s; more than half of all countries are below the 2.1 replacement rate.
- AGAINST Three-child family planning amendment passed into law. Caixin Global, 2021-08-20. China amended its family planning law to allow three children and dropped the fee for exceeding the old limit.
Ledger updated 6 Nov 2026. Open this ledger as its own page · The P(n) Board · Method
Themes: AI and machine minds · Climate and scarcity
