Did Infomocracy come true?
Partly. Infomocracy (2016) has a P(n) of 47% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A single private information provider administers the world's elections and audits whether governments keep their promises', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2090.
Infomocracy is most prescient about its information layer: one search provider dominating what people see is now a US court finding, and election-season disinformation is documented. Its political structure, non-geographic governments refereed by the same company that runs the internet, has no real counterpart, and its world of lasting peace has not arrived.
Read the review · 7.4/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO-1 | One organisation provides the world's search, news and communications, and most people accept its results as the default account of events. Major: Information's reach is what makes the election both runnable and vulnerable. |
4 | ARRIVED arrived 2024 | 100% | 100% |
| INFO-2 | A single private information provider administers the world's elections and audits whether governments keep their promises. Core premise: Information as both the media and the referee is the book's central idea. |
5 | FAR 2100 (2070–2200) | 5% | 18% |
| INFO-3 | Citizens belong to overlapping governments of about 100,000 people each, chosen by preference rather than by location, and vote on them every ten years. Core premise: the whole plot is a single election under this system. |
5 | FAR 2090 (2060–2200) | 6% | 31% |
| INFO-4 | Organised disinformation and sabotage are aimed at an election's information channels, with the aim of swaying voters or destroying trust in the result. Major: the election-day attack on Information drives the plot. |
4 | ARRIVED arrived 2016 | 100% | 100% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 8.5 ÷ 18 = 47% | |||||
| P50 = 10.5 ÷ 18 = 58% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 44%.
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INFO-1
One organisation provides the world's search, news and communications, and most people accept its results as the default account of events.
Weight 4/5 · Major: Information's reach is what makes the election both runnable and vulnerable.
In August 2024 a US federal judge found that Google had illegally maintained a monopoly in general search and search advertising. The 2025 remedies did not break the company up and left it Chrome, but required some data sharing with rivals. The fictional Information is wider, covering broadcast and telecoms, so the claim is met for search only. We date arrival to the 2024 court finding. 123
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INFO-2
A single private information provider administers the world's elections and audits whether governments keep their promises.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: Information as both the media and the referee is the book's central idea.
Elections are still run by national and local authorities, and no private company administers a national count. Democracies tend to separate those who carry the news from those who count the votes. We see no credible path within 50 years, so the range assumes it happens at all. 45
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INFO-3
Citizens belong to overlapping governments of about 100,000 people each, chosen by preference rather than by location, and vote on them every ten years.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the whole plot is a single election under this system.
Estonia's e-Residency offers a digital identity to people abroad, with about 139,000 e-residents by April 2026, but it carries no vote. Honduras's self-governing zones show the limits: its Supreme Court declared them unconstitutional in 2024. People will shop for a jurisdiction. States have not agreed to let them vote in one. 67
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INFO-4
Organised disinformation and sabotage are aimed at an election's information channels, with the aim of swaying voters or destroying trust in the result.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the election-day attack on Information drives the plot.
The Senate Intelligence Committee found a Kremlin-linked operation ran social media activity aimed at the 2016 US election. Whether this changes votes is doubtful: a large study of field experiments found average persuasive effects of campaign contact close to zero. The harm that is documented is to trust, and the claim is met on those terms. 89
- FOR Department of Justice Prevails in Landmark Antitrust Case Against Google. US Department of Justice, 2024-08-05. The Justice Department announces the court's finding that Google unlawfully maintained monopolies in search and search advertising.
- AGAINST A judge lets Google keep Chrome but levies other penalties. NPR, 2025-09-02. The remedies stop short of a breakup, so the company keeps its reach.
- CONTEXT 'Infomocracy' Is A Sci-Fi Thriller With Election-Year Chills. NPR, 2016-06-08. Contemporary review of the book at publication.
- CONTEXT Publishers Weekly review of Infomocracy. Publishers Weekly, 2016. Describes Information as a worldwide organisation that runs elections and monitors whether governments keep campaign promises.
- CONTEXT 'Infomocracy' Is A Sci-Fi Thriller With Election-Year Chills. NPR, 2016-06-08. Reviews the book's premise of an election-running information monopoly.
- CONTEXT How many Estonian e-residents are there? e-Residency statistics. Republic of Estonia, e-Residency, 2026-04-29. Official dashboard shows more than 139,000 e-residents, a digital identity rather than citizenship.
- AGAINST Honduras top court declares self-governing ZEDE zones unconstitutional. Stabroek News, 2024-09-21. A court strikes down the legal basis for self-governing charter zones.
- FOR READ: Senate report finds Russia tried to harm Clinton, boost Trump in 2016 election. The Hill, 2019-10-08. Reports the Senate Intelligence Committee's finding on the Internet Research Agency's social media operation.
- AGAINST The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments. American Political Science Review, 2018. Finds the best estimate of persuasion from campaign contact in general elections is zero.
Ledger updated 6 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method