Did The Martian come true?
Partly. The Martian (2015) has a P(n) of 50% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A crew of astronauts lands on Mars, works on the surface for weeks and returns to Earth', is expected within 50 years. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2040.
The Martian is most prescient about the small engineering of survival: oxygen has been made from Martian air and crops have grown in simulant soil, though only at toy scale. Its large assumptions are further off: no crew has left Earth orbit for Mars, the commercial plan that promised 2026 has been pushed back, and US law bars the NASA-China rescue the plot relies on.
Read the review · 7.8/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARTIAN-1 | A crew of astronauts lands on Mars, works on the surface for weeks and returns to Earth. Core premise: without a crewed surface mission there is no stranded astronaut and no story. |
5 | NEAR 2045 (2036–2065) | 52% | 96% |
| MARTIAN-2 | Crops can be grown in Martian soil, fertilised with human waste, to feed a stranded astronaut for years. Major: the potato farm is the film's central survival problem and its most memorable image. |
4 | ARRIVING 2045 (2035–2065) | 52% | 96% |
| MARTIAN-3 | Oxygen and water are made on Mars from local resources to sustain a habitat and support a return launch. Supporting: the Hab's oxygen and water budget shapes every decision Watney makes, but the plot turns on food. |
3 | ARRIVING 2040 (2033–2055) | 66% | 100% |
| MARTIAN-4 | NASA and China's space agency cooperate directly, with China supplying a launch vehicle, to rescue a stranded American astronaut. Supporting: the Chinese booster is a key turn in the rescue, but the plot would survive another partner. |
3 | NEAR 2055 (2038–2100) | 29% | 69% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 7.5 ÷ 15 = 50% | |||||
| P50 = 13.7 ÷ 15 = 91% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 23%.
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MARTIAN-1
A crew of astronauts lands on Mars, works on the surface for weeks and returns to Earth.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: without a crewed surface mission there is no stranded astronaut and no story.
No crew has travelled beyond the Moon's neighbourhood. SpaceX, the firm most associated with a Mars date, said in February 2026 that it had shifted its focus to a lunar city, and its founder's earlier Mars dates have repeatedly slipped. NASA's Moon to Mars pages give no date for a human landing. Landing heavy payloads, surface power and a six-month transit all remain unproven, so the median sits well after the company's targets. 123
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MARTIAN-2
Crops can be grown in Martian soil, fertilised with human waste, to feed a stranded astronaut for years.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the potato farm is the film's central survival problem and its most memorable image.
Plants have been grown on Mars soil simulants, which is a partial form of the film's idea. A 2014 Wageningen experiment grew tomato, wheat and cress for 50 days on a Mars simulant, and some flowered. But simulants are not Martian soil, and perchlorate salts in the real soil are toxic to plants and hard to wash out. No crop has grown in real Martian soil, and none has been grown in the planet's low pressure and radiation. Full arrival depends on a crewed outpost (see MARTIAN-1). 45
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MARTIAN-3
Oxygen and water are made on Mars from local resources to sustain a habitat and support a return launch.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the Hab's oxygen and water budget shapes every decision Watney makes, but the plot turns on food.
Oxygen has been made from the Martian atmosphere: NASA's MOXIE experiment on Perseverance produced 122 grams over 16 runs, with a peak of 12 grams an hour at 98% purity or better. That proves the chemistry, not the scale. NASA's own estimate is about 25 tonnes of oxygen to launch four astronauts, and it points to a one-tonne descendant as the next step. No such unit exists yet. Water extraction on Mars has not been demonstrated here, so the claim is partial. 67
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MARTIAN-4
NASA and China's space agency cooperate directly, with China supplying a launch vehicle, to rescue a stranded American astronaut.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the Chinese booster is a key turn in the rescue, but the plot would survive another partner.
Since 2011 the Wolf Amendment has barred NASA from bilateral work with China or Chinese-owned companies unless a later law allows it, and a May 2026 House committee report pressed NASA on enforcing it. Cross-border cooperation does survive between rivals elsewhere: NASA and Roscosmos agreed in July 2026 to keep seat swaps going to 2030. A shared rescue with China would need Congress to change the law, or an emergency that overrides it. We treat this as a political choice, not a technical one, and give it a wide range. 8910
- AGAINST Elon Musk says SpaceX is shifting focus from Mars to a 'self-growing city' on the Moon. TIME, 2026-02-09. Musk said SpaceX had shifted focus to the Moon. The article lists earlier Mars dates he gave, including 'highly confident' of human landings by 2026 (2020), that have not been met.
- CONTEXT Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026. Al Jazeera, 2025-05-30. The plan was for an uncrewed first flight with humans on the second or third landings, and a two-year wait if Starship was not ready.
- CONTEXT Moon to Mars Architecture. NASA, 2026-10-26. NASA's framework for the first human Mars missions, with no target year for a landing.
- FOR Can Plants Grow on Mars and the Moon: A Growth Experiment on Mars and Moon Soil Simulants. PLOS ONE, 2014-08-27. Plants germinated and grew on Mars simulant for 50 days with no added nutrients. Tomato, wheat and cress did well, and growth was slightly better than on a river-soil control.
- AGAINST What will it take to grow food on Mars?. CSA News (American Society of Agronomy), 2021-12-29. Perchlorate harmed plants even at 0.5%, beans failed to germinate once any was added, and washing it out needs scarce water and leaves toxic waste. The simulant also compacted when watered.
- FOR NASA's Perseverance Mars Rover Extracts First Oxygen from Red Planet. NASA, 2021-04-21. About 5.4 grams in the first hour-long run on 20 April 2021, the first oxygen made on another planet. The release says four astronauts would need about 25 tonnes of oxygen to leave.
- CONTEXT NASA's Oxygen-Generating Experiment MOXIE Completes Mars Mission. NASA, 2023-09-06. 122 grams in total, about what a small dog breathes in 10 hours. The next step is a full-scale system with liquefaction and storage, not a MOXIE 2.0.
- AGAINST Wolf Amendment. Wikipedia, 2011-04-15. Sets out the 2011 appropriations rider, in Public Law 112-10, barring NASA and OSTP from bilateral cooperation with China unless a law specifically authorises it.
- AGAINST Select Committee Releases Report on NASA's Research Security and Enforcement of the Wolf Amendment. House Select Committee on the CCP, 2026-05-14. The committee reports hundreds of NASA-supported publications that may breach the rule and calls for stricter enforcement. NASA acknowledged where improvements were needed.
- FOR Russia Agrees to ISS Operations, Seat-Swaps, Through 2030. SpacePolicyOnline, 2026-07-16. NASA and Roscosmos agree to keep flying each other's astronauts to 2030 without exchange of funds, showing cooperation can survive rivalry, though not with China.
Ledger updated 4 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method