Did Civil War come true?
Partly. Civil War (2024) has a P(n) of 49% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A sustained armed civil war breaks out in the United States between the federal government and secessionist state-based forces, including a California-Texas alliance that advances on Washington, D.C', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2100.
Civil War is most prescient about its smaller details. Journalists are now assaulted and detained by state forces while covering American unrest, and federalised troops have been sent into cities over local objections. Its big premise, a sustained shooting war between a federal government and secessionist states, has no sign of arriving, and the film itself never says what the war is about.
Read the review · 7.4/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIVIL-1 | A sustained armed civil war breaks out in the United States between the federal government and secessionist state-based forces, including a California-Texas alliance that advances on Washington, D.C. Core premise: the war is the film's world and the reason the journalists are on the road. |
5 | FAR 2100 (2070–2200) | 5% | 18% |
| CIVIL-2 | Journalists covering domestic conflict in the United States are routinely assaulted, detained or arrested by armed state forces while working. Major: the film's subject and its four leads are journalists; the plot is how they work under fire. |
4 | ARRIVED arrived 2020 | 100% | 100% |
| CIVIL-3 | The federal government sends military forces onto American city streets against the wishes of state and local authorities. Supporting: the occupation of cities and the security state shape the journeys but the plot turns on the journalists. |
3 | ARRIVED arrived 2025 | 100% | 100% |
| CIVIL-4 | A US president serves a third term in office, in defiance of the two-term norm. Supporting: the long-serving president is the war's backdrop and its target, but the film never explains the term. |
3 | FAR 2100 (2060–2200) | 6% | 26% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 7.4 ÷ 15 = 49% | |||||
| P50 = 8.7 ÷ 15 = 58% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 47%.
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CIVIL-1
A sustained armed civil war breaks out in the United States between the federal government and secessionist state-based forces, including a California-Texas alliance that advances on Washington, D.C.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the war is the film's world and the reason the journalists are on the road.
Survey data show a sizeable minority of Americans will say that force is justified for political goals, and scholars such as Barbara F. Walter argue that the US has entered the middle ground in which civil wars start. But attitudes have been broadly stable, no state has an organised secessionist army, and the film's pairing of California and Texas has no real political basis. Expressing support in a poll is a long way from fighting. The range shown assumes that it does happen, which it may never do. 123
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CIVIL-2
Journalists covering domestic conflict in the United States are routinely assaulted, detained or arrested by armed state forces while working.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the film's subject and its four leads are journalists; the plot is how they work under fire.
The US Press Freedom Tracker recorded more than 140 detentions and arrests of journalists by 1 December 2020, mostly at the protests that followed George Floyd's killing. In 2025 it documented at least 32 detentions or arrests, nearly 90% at demonstrations, and nearly as many assaults as in the previous three years combined. The film shows journalists shot at and killed in a war zone; in reality there has been nothing on that scale, and about 90% of those arrested were released without charge or had charges dropped. We rate the claim as arrived in its everyday form, not its wartime form. 456
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CIVIL-3
The federal government sends military forces onto American city streets against the wishes of state and local authorities.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the occupation of cities and the security state shape the journeys but the plot turns on the journalists.
In June 2025 the president federalised National Guard troops in Los Angeles over the objection of California's governor, citing a federal statute rather than the Insurrection Act, and a federal judge later found the deployment broke the Posse Comitatus Act. In October a deployment to the Chicago area followed. The Supreme Court declined in December 2025 to lift a block on it, finding the government had not identified authority for it. So the thing has happened, but it has been contested, limited and largely reversed in the courts, and the Insurrection Act has not been used. 78
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CIVIL-4
A US president serves a third term in office, in defiance of the two-term norm.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the long-serving president is the war's backdrop and its target, but the film never explains the term.
The 22nd Amendment bars anyone being elected president more than twice. In March 2025 the president said he was not joking about a third term and that there were 'methods', though also that it was far too early to think about it. The Senate majority leader said it was not possible without a change to the Constitution, and the House majority leader said no proposal to change it existed. Some lawyers argue that the amendment bars election, not service; others reject that reading. The film treats the third term as a given. Today it is talk, so we rate it unlikely. 910
- FOR How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them. Barbara F. Walter (author's website), 2022. A political scientist who studies civil conflict argues that the US is among the countries now in the risky middle ground between autocracy and healthy democracy.
- CONTEXT Understanding Support for Political Violence in America Survey, May 2025 Topline. NORC at the University of Chicago for the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, 2025-05-05. Of 2,131 adults, 21.4% agreed that force is justified to remove President Trump; 12.3% agreed he is justified in using the military to stop protests against his agenda. Opinion, not action.
- AGAINST Survey shows little shift in Americans' views on political violence. UC Davis Health, 2026-06-01. A survey of more than 8,000 adults from mid-2024 to mid-2025 found willingness to kill did not rise and support for civil war as 'necessary' was unchanged.
- FOR Press arrests used to silence protest coverage in 2025. U.S. Press Freedom Tracker (Freedom of the Press Foundation), 2025-12-15. At least 32 journalists detained or charged in 2025, nearly 90% while covering demonstrations; assaults nearly matched the previous three years combined.
- FOR Our December 2020 Newsletter. U.S. Press Freedom Tracker, 2020-12-01. More than 140 detentions and arrests of journalists reported in 2020.
- AGAINST CPJ: Acceleration of US press freedom concerns spike demand for safety training. Committee to Protect Journalists, 2025-12-22. Counts over 150 assaults on journalists at protests and at least 28 arrests in 2025: serious and rising, but a long way from the film's war-zone killings.
- FOR Judge rules Trump deployment of National Guard to Los Angeles violated federal law. Washington Examiner, 2025-09-02. Describes the June 2025 deployment over the governor's objection and the Posse Comitatus ruling, which was paused for appeal.
- AGAINST U.S. Supreme Court sides against Trump, won't lift block on National Guard deployment in Illinois. WBEZ Chicago, 2025-12-23. The Court left in place an order blocking the Chicago-area deployment, finding the government had failed to identify a source of authority. The Insurrection Act was not at issue.
- FOR As Trump says "there are methods" for serving a third term, here's what to know about the 12th and 22nd Amendments. CBS News, 2025-03-31. The president says he is not joking about a third term and that there are methods, while adding it is far too early to think about it; scholars dispute the amendment's wording.
- AGAINST Congressional leaders silent, dismissive as Trump pitches unconstitutional third term. Spectrum News, 2025-03-31. Congressional leaders of both parties were largely silent or dismissive; the majority leader said there was no proposal to change the Constitution.
Ledger updated 6 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method