Did Walkaway come true?
Mostly not yet. Walkaway (2017) has a P(n) of 35% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Fabrication and recycling machines are cheap and capable enough that people can build shelter, tools and clothing from rubble and live outside the money economy', is expected within 50 years. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2032.
Walkaway is closest in its fear: precarious, over-watched work and a rich minority paying to live longer are already visible. Its machines are plausible but premature, and the end of death is a long way off.
Read the review · 7.0/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WALK-1 | Fabrication and recycling machines are cheap and capable enough that people can build shelter, tools and clothing from rubble and live outside the money economy. Core premise: the walkaway settlements, and so the whole story, depend on these machines making leaving possible. |
5 | NEAR 2060 (2040–2100) | 22% | 66% |
| WALK-2 | Research that can end death, by capturing and continuing a person's mind, becomes workable and sets off a war over who controls it. Major: it is what turns the walkaway movement into a war with the elite. |
4 | FAR 2120 (2080–2250) | 4% | 9% |
| WALK-3 | A wealthy elite funds the search for radical life extension and tries to keep the results for itself. Supporting: the elite's wish to live for ever drives the conflict, though the plot turns on the walkaways' research. |
3 | ARRIVING 2032 (2028–2050) | 81% | 100% |
| WALK-4 | Automation leaves a large share of people without stable paid work, in a precarious 'non-work' economy. Supporting: the precarity of Default is what makes Hubert, Seth and Natalie leave. |
3 | NEAR 2045 (2033–2075) | 51% | 90% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 5.2 ÷ 15 = 35% | |||||
| P50 = 9.4 ÷ 15 = 63% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 10%.
-
WALK-1
Fabrication and recycling machines are cheap and capable enough that people can build shelter, tools and clothing from rubble and live outside the money economy.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the walkaway settlements, and so the whole story, depend on these machines making leaving possible.
3D-printed housing is real: ICON and Lennar had printed nearly a hundred houses at Wolf Ranch, Texas, by August 2024. But they sell at ordinary market prices of about $450,000 to $600,000, the printers are specialised and the land, permits and materials still have to be bought. Printing walls is not the same as removing scarcity, so we set the median well into the future. 12
-
WALK-2
Research that can end death, by capturing and continuing a person's mind, becomes workable and sets off a war over who controls it.
Weight 4/5 · Major: it is what turns the walkaway movement into a war with the elite.
The best wiring map of a mammalian brain is one cubic millimetre of mouse cortex, published in April 2025, with about 200,000 cells and 523 million synapses. That covers around 0.2 per cent of a mouse brain, and a human brain is far larger. Mapping is also only a first step towards running a mind. The range assumes it happens at all. 34
-
WALK-3
A wealthy elite funds the search for radical life extension and tries to keep the results for itself.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the elite's wish to live for ever drives the conflict, though the plot turns on the walkaways' research.
Very rich backers are funding ageing research: Altos Labs launched in January 2022 with $3 billion, with Yuri Milner named as an early investor and Jeff Bezos reported but not confirmed. Its stated aim is reversing disease and injury by cellular rejuvenation, not defeating death, and no therapy has reached the market. The funding exists today. The exclusive access the book imagines does not yet. 56
-
WALK-4
Automation leaves a large share of people without stable paid work, in a precarious 'non-work' economy.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the precarity of Default is what makes Hubert, Seth and Natalie leave.
Exposure is high: the IMF estimated in January 2024 that almost 40 per cent of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI. But exposure is not loss. A Yale Budget Lab study found no economy-wide change in US employment or unemployment in the first 33 months after ChatGPT's launch. Precarious gig work is already ordinary, but mass non-work is not here. 78
- FOR A robotics company has 3D printed nearly a hundred homes in Texas. Engadget, 2024-08-08. ICON and Lennar have printed nearly 100 homes in Georgetown, Texas, with more than a quarter sold.
- AGAINST Wolf Ranch Model. Dezeen, 2023-07-21. The first completed house is a model for buyers of a conventional development, not a free or self-built settlement.
- CONTEXT Scientists complete largest wiring diagram and functional map of the brain to date. Allen Institute, 2025-04-09. A one-cubic-millimetre sample of mouse visual cortex, with 523 million synapses, sets the stage for scaling but gives no timeline.
- AGAINST Biggest Brain Map Ever Shows Mouse Neurons in Stunning Detail. Scientific American, 2025-04-09. Reports that the map covers around 0.2% of the mouse's brain, a reminder of the scale gap to a whole human brain.
- FOR Billionaire-backed 'rejuvenation' start-up Altos Labs launches operations. pharmaphorum, 2022-01-20. Altos launches with a reported $3 billion to pursue cellular rejuvenation.
- CONTEXT 'Disease-Reversing' Biotech Startup Altos Launches With $3B War Chest In 3 Cities. Bisnow, 2022-01-20. Names Milner as an early funder, describes Bezos's role only as rumoured, and gives the aim as reversing disease and injury.
- FOR AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. International Monetary Fund, 2024-01-14. Almost 40% of global employment, and about 60% of jobs in advanced economies, are exposed to AI.
- AGAINST AI has had zero effect on jobs so far, says Yale study. The Register, 2025-10-01. Yale Budget Lab finds no economy-wide link between AI exposure and changes in US employment in the 33 months after ChatGPT.
Ledger updated 5 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method