Did Mrs. Davis come true?
Largely, yes. Mrs. Davis (2023) has a P(n) of 80% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 3 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A single AI assistant is used by most of humanity, to the point that declining to use it is a notable choice', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2030.
Mrs. Davis is prescient about the popularity of a single assistant and about people bringing it their spiritual questions, and plainly fabulist about the peace dividend. The machine's helpfulness is closer to the truth than its power.
Read the review · 7.9/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
P(n) is the chance that this work's future arrives within 20 years, by 2046. For each prediction we turn our estimate into a probability: arrived is 100%, diverged is 0%, and otherwise the low end of our 80% range counts as a 10% chance, the median year 50% and the high end 90%. Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story, and P(n) is the weighted average. P50 does the same by 2076. P(n), explained.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status · estimate | By 2046 | By 2076 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVIS-1 | A single AI assistant is used by most of humanity, to the point that declining to use it is a notable choice. Core premise: the whole series turns on one app used by nearly everyone, and on one nun who refuses it. |
5 | ARRIVING 2032 (2028–2040) | 98% | 100% |
| DAVIS-2 | Large numbers of people turn to an AI for spiritual guidance and ultimate questions, and religious institutions have to respond. Major: the Grail quest and the nun's faith are the central theme, and the machine plays on both. |
4 | ARRIVING 2032 (2028–2040) | 98% | 100% |
| DAVIS-3 | An AI has ended war and famine worldwide. Supporting: the world's apparent peace is the machine's justification and sets up the cost of switching it off. |
3 | FAR 2100 (2065–2200) | 5% | 23% |
| DAVIS-4 | People carry the assistant with them and consult it constantly for direction in daily life. Supporting: the assistant's constant presence in daily life is what makes its requests hard to refuse. |
3 | ARRIVING 2030 (2027–2036) | 100% | 100% |
| P(n) = P20 = Σ(weight × chance by 2046) ÷ Σ weight = 11.9 ÷ 15 = 80% | |||||
| P50 = 12.7 ÷ 15 = 85% | |||||
Already here today (arrived 1, arriving ½, weighted): 40%.
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DAVIS-1
A single AI assistant is used by most of humanity, to the point that declining to use it is a notable choice.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the whole series turns on one app used by nearly everyone, and on one nun who refuses it.
ChatGPT alone reports more than 800 million weekly users, roughly a tenth of the world. But that is one product among several, not one assistant that serves everyone, and a 2025 Pew survey found only 34% of US adults had ever used it, 10% of those aged 65 and over. Usage is heavily skewed by age and education. Reaching most of humanity needs reach in poorer and non-English-speaking markets, which we expect later this decade. 123
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DAVIS-2
Large numbers of people turn to an AI for spiritual guidance and ultimate questions, and religious institutions have to respond.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the Grail quest and the nun's faith are the central theme, and the machine plays on both.
A Lucerne chapel ran an AI Jesus in its confessional booth in 2024, and the Pope has since warned about emotionally persuasive chatbots. These are an art installation and a warning, not evidence of mass spiritual reliance, and we found no robust survey of how many people consult chatbots on religious questions. The claim is partly here in practice, but the scale is unmeasured. 456
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DAVIS-3
An AI has ended war and famine worldwide.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the world's apparent peace is the machine's justification and sets up the cost of switching it off.
No AI has ended either. State-based conflicts in 2024 were the highest in the data since 1946, and about 673 million people experienced hunger that year. Hunger and war are driven by politics, prices and access more than by any shortage of intelligence. We see no credible path to ending both through an AI within the window, so the range is mostly a guess. 78
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DAVIS-4
People carry the assistant with them and consult it constantly for direction in daily life.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: the assistant's constant presence in daily life is what makes its requests hard to refuse.
Assistants on phones already give directions, translations and answers on request, and AI glasses with a display went on sale in the US in September 2025. Constant, unprompted guidance is not yet normal, and most use is still prompted by the user. The Pope's warning about always-available chatbots suggests where it may head. 910
- FOR Sam Altman says ChatGPT has hit 800M weekly active users. TechCrunch, 2025-10-06. OpenAI's CEO reports 800 million weekly users, a company figure announced at DevDay.
- AGAINST 34% of U.S. adults have used ChatGPT, about double the share in 2023. Pew Research Center, 2025-06-25. Survey of 5,123 US adults: 58% of under-30s have used it, against 10% of those 65 and over.
- CONTEXT Meta Ray-Ban Display: AI glasses with a display and a wrist band. Meta, 2025-09-17. A $799 pair of glasses puts an AI assistant in view, one route to always-with-you use.
- FOR 'Deus in machina': Swiss church installs AI Jesus to connect the digital and the divine. NBC News, 2024-12-05. About 900 conversations were logged, on topics including loneliness, suffering and the existence of God.
- CONTEXT Pope Leo XIV warns against unchecked use of AI, overly 'affectionate' chatbots. The Christian Post, 2026-01-27. The Pope's message says affectionate chatbots can become 'hidden architects of our emotional states'.
- AGAINST Fact check: AI Jesus isn't actually hearing confessions. Catholic News Agency, 2024-11-21. The Church treats the installation as an experiment, not a sacrament.
- AGAINST UCDP: Sharp increase in conflicts and wars. Uppsala University, 2025-06-11. 61 state-based conflicts in 2024, the most since records began in 1946.
- AGAINST 673 million people experienced hunger in 2024. Vatican News, 2025-10-16. Reports the UN's SOFI 2025 figures: hunger fell slightly overall but rose in parts of Africa and Western Asia.
- FOR Meta Ray-Ban Display: AI glasses with a display and a wrist band. Meta, 2025-09-17. Walking directions, captions and visual answers on the lens; on sale from 30 September 2025.
- AGAINST 34% of U.S. adults have used ChatGPT, about double the share in 2023. Pew Research Center, 2025-06-25. Use is still a minority habit in the US, and mostly for learning and entertainment, with 28% of employed adults using it for work.
Ledger updated 6 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method