Did Years and Years come true?
Unusually prescient on events: a second Trump term, Ukrainian refugees and a US bank collapse that rattled Britain all arrived within a few years of the show's dates. It was wrong about the outcomes, because states rescued depositors and Kyiv did not fall, and its forecast that AI would take office jobs is still unproven.
Read the review · 7.6/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story: 5 is the core premise, 1 is background detail. Arrived scores 1, arriving 0.5, everything else 0. P(n) is the weighted points divided by the total weight.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status | Value | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YAY-1 | Donald Trump serves a second term as US president. Supporting: Trump's second term and nuclear strike is a pivotal early shock, but backdrop to the family saga. |
3 | ARRIVED | 1 | 3 |
| YAY-2 | Russian aggression against Ukraine drives large numbers of Ukrainian refugees into Western Europe and Britain. Major: Viktor's flight from Ukraine and Daniel's love for him is one of the show's main storylines. |
4 | ARRIVED | 1 | 4 |
| YAY-3 | Office professionals such as accountants lose their jobs to AI in large numbers by the mid-2020s. Texture: Celeste losing her accounting job to AI is a passing beat, not a driving storyline. |
2 | ARRIVING | 0.5 | 1 |
| YAY-4 | The collapse of a US bank sets off a crisis in which ordinary British savers lose their deposits overnight. Major: the bank collapse wipes out Stephen and Celeste's savings and drives Stephen's downward arc. |
4 | DIVERGED | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 13 | 8 |
P(n) = 8 ÷ 13 = 62% · unweighted average 62%
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YAY-1
Donald Trump serves a second term as US president.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: Trump's second term and nuclear strike is a pivotal early shock, but backdrop to the family saga.
The show gives Trump a consecutive second term ending in a nuclear strike on a Chinese artificial island. In reality he lost in 2020, won in 2024 and began a non-consecutive second term in January 2025. China's island-building in the South China Sea, which the show extrapolates, is real; the strike is not. 12
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YAY-2
Russian aggression against Ukraine drives large numbers of Ukrainian refugees into Western Europe and Britain.
Weight 4/5 · Major: Viktor's flight from Ukraine and Daniel's love for him is one of the show's main storylines.
Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 sent millions of Ukrainians west as refugees, and Britain created dedicated visa schemes. The show's detail, a Russian-backed regime in Kyiv persecuting gay people, did not happen. 34
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YAY-3
Office professionals such as accountants lose their jobs to AI in large numbers by the mid-2020s.
Weight 2/5 · Texture: Celeste losing her accounting job to AI is a passing beat, not a driving storyline.
Exposure is high on paper: the IMF estimated in 2024 that almost 40 per cent of global employment is exposed to AI. Measured disruption is not yet visible. A Yale Budget Lab analysis in October 2025 found no discernible economy-wide effect since ChatGPT's release. Partial, occupation-level effects make this ARRIVING rather than ARRIVED. 56
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YAY-4
The collapse of a US bank sets off a crisis in which ordinary British savers lose their deposits overnight.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the bank collapse wipes out Stephen and Celeste's savings and drives Stephen's downward arc.
The trigger arrived almost exactly: Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023 and the shock reached British firms within days. The outcome went the other way. US authorities guaranteed depositors and the UK arm was sold to HSBC with customers' money intact. The precedent now is rescue, not loss. 78
- FOR President Donald J. Trump. The White House, 2026-11-01. Official biography of the 45th and 47th President. Date is when accessed.
- CONTEXT China Tracker. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS, 2026-11-01. Since 2013 China has created 5,460 acres of new land in the Spratlys and Paracels, the real basis for the show's Hong Sha Dao. Date is when accessed.
- FOR Ukraine Refugee Situation. UNHCR Operational Data Portal, 2026-11-01. UNHCR's running record of refugees from Ukraine across Europe. Date is when accessed.
- FOR Ukraine Visa Schemes: visa data. UK Home Office (GOV.UK), 2024-12-19. Data on the UK's Ukraine Family and Sponsorship schemes; weekly publication ended in December 2024.
- FOR AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.. International Monetary Fund, 2024-01-14. Kristalina Georgieva: almost 40 per cent of global employment, and about 60 per cent in advanced economies, is exposed to AI.
- AGAINST Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs. The Budget Lab at Yale, 2025-10-01. Finds no discernible disruption to the broader US labour market in the 33 months after ChatGPT's release.
- CONTEXT Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2023-03-12. Emergency action after SVB's failure; states that depositors will be made whole with no losses to taxpayers.
- AGAINST HSBC swoops in to rescue UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank. BBC News, 2023-03-13. Government and Bank of England broker a sale that lets UK customers access their money as normal.
Ledger updated 1 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method