Did Upload come true?
Right about the business, wrong about the technology. Star-rated service work and paid AI avatars of the dead are here and driverless cars are spreading, but uploading a human mind is nowhere near its 2033 date.
Read the review · 5.6/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story: 5 is the core premise, 1 is background detail. Arrived scores 1, arriving 0.5, everything else 0. P(n) is the weighted points divided by the total weight.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status | Value | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPL-1 | A dying person's consciousness can be uploaded into a persistent virtual world. Core premise: Nathan uploaded into Lakeview after death is the show's whole setting and story. |
5 | FAR | 0 | 0 |
| UPL-2 | Companies sell interactive digital versions of dead people to the people who survive them. Major: the afterlife as a business sold to families drives the satire and Nathan's dependence on Ingrid. |
4 | ARRIVED | 1 | 4 |
| UPL-3 | People own self-driving cars that drive them without a human at the wheel. Supporting: tampering with Nathan's self-driving car kills him and powers the running murder mystery. |
3 | ARRIVING | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| UPL-4 | Service workers' jobs depend on customers' star ratings, which can get them removed. Supporting: Nora's job and life are ruled by star ratings, shaping her side of the story. |
3 | ARRIVED | 1 | 3 |
| Total | 15 | 8.5 |
P(n) = 8.5 ÷ 15 = 57% · unweighted average 62%
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UPL-1
A dying person's consciousness can be uploaded into a persistent virtual world.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: Nathan uploaded into Lakeview after death is the show's whole setting and story.
The most complete brain map yet is an adult fruit fly's, with about 139,000 neurons, published in 2024. A human brain is roughly 86 billion neurons, and nobody knows how to turn a structural map into a working mind. Brain-preservation start-ups exist only as bets on future science. 12
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UPL-2
Companies sell interactive digital versions of dead people to the people who survive them.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the afterlife as a business sold to families drives the satire and Nathan's dependence on Ingrid.
Generative-AI 'deadbots' built from a person's messages, voice and images are commercially offered and in use, including a 2025 court appearance by an avatar of a road-rage victim. Researchers have called for regulation. They are simulations for the living, not the continuing consciousness the show imagines. 345
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UPL-3
People own self-driving cars that drive them without a human at the wheel.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: tampering with Nathan's self-driving car kills him and powers the running murder mystery.
Driverless robotaxis operate commercially in several cities, and Waymo reports more than 400 million fully autonomous kilometres. Privately owned cars that need no supervising driver are not yet on sale. GM's retreat from robotaxis to personal autonomy in late 2024 shows both the ambition and how slowly it is moving. 67
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UPL-4
Service workers' jobs depend on customers' star ratings, which can get them removed.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: Nora's job and life are ruled by star ratings, shaping her side of the story.
Platform work has run on customer ratings for a decade. Research on Uber in 2016 documented ratings as a means of indirect control, and the UK Supreme Court's 2021 ruling cited Uber's power to end drivers' access over ratings. Courts and regulators have since pushed back on the employment model, not on the ratings themselves. 8910
- CONTEXT A startup is pitching a mind-uploading service that is "100 percent fatal". MIT Technology Review, 2018-03-13. Nectome's preserve-now, scan-later pitch shows that commercial interest has run far ahead of the science.
- AGAINST Neuronal wiring diagram of an adult brain. Nature, 2024-10-02. FlyWire's whole-brain connectome of a fruit fly, 139,255 neurons, is the frontier: nearly six orders of magnitude short of a human brain.
- FOR Digital recreations of dead people need urgent regulation, AI ethicists say. The Guardian, 2024-05-09. Cambridge researchers say such services are already technically possible and legally permissible.
- FOR AI 'deadbots' are persuasive — and researchers say they're primed for monetization. NPR, 2025-08-26. Avatars of the dead used in advocacy and in an Arizona sentencing hearing; digital afterlife industry projected to near $80bn within a decade.
- CONTEXT Griefbots, Deadbots, Postmortem Avatars: on Responsible Applications of Generative AI in the Digital Afterlife Industry. Philosophy & Technology, 2024-05-09. The peer-reviewed paper behind the Cambridge warning, setting out risk scenarios and design safeguards.
- FOR Hello Toronto! Waymo is En Route. Waymo, 2026-10-16. Waymo cites more than 400 million fully autonomous kilometres as it expands to Canada.
- AGAINST GM to refocus autonomous driving development on personal vehicles. General Motors, 2024-12-10. GM stops funding Cruise robotaxis, citing the time and money needed to scale; personal autonomy remains a goal, not a product.
- FOR Algorithmic Labor and Information Asymmetries: A Case Study of Uber's Drivers. International Journal of Communication, 2016-07-27. Nine-month study finding Uber exerts significant indirect control over drivers through its app.
- FOR Uber drivers are workers not self-employed, Supreme Court rules. BBC News, 2021-02-19. Court notes Uber monitors service through star ratings and can end the relationship if ratings don't improve; also grants drivers worker rights.
- CONTEXT Driver App Basics. Uber, 2026-11-01. Uber's own guidance: consistently low ratings may limit drivers' access to some opportunities and features. Date is when accessed.
Ledger updated 1 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method