# Did Waste Tide (2013) come true?

Largely, yes. Waste Tide (2013) has a P(n) of 81% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Discarded electronics are dismantled by hand by low-paid migrant workers in a poisoned industrial town, with the profits and the harm falling on different people', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2036.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/waste-tide

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): Discarded electronics are dismantled by hand by low-paid migrant workers in a poisoned industrial town, with the profits and the harm falling on different people. Arrived 2000.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Rich countries ship their electronic waste across borders to places with weaker rules, and the trade moves when one place closes its doors. Arrived 1990.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): A person can link their brain to external machines and control them directly by thought. Estimated 2036 (range 2030–2050).
- **NEAR** (weight 2/5): The wealthy routinely swap body parts for cybernetic replacements, as casually as people replace phones. Estimated 2060 (range 2045–2090).