# Did Walkaway (2017) come true?

Mostly not yet. Walkaway (2017) has a P(n) of 35% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Fabrication and recycling machines are cheap and capable enough that people can build shelter, tools and clothing from rubble and live outside the money economy', is expected within 50 years. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2032.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/walkaway

## Predictions

- **NEAR** (weight 5/5): Fabrication and recycling machines are cheap and capable enough that people can build shelter, tools and clothing from rubble and live outside the money economy. Estimated 2060 (range 2040–2100).
- **FAR** (weight 4/5): Research that can end death, by capturing and continuing a person's mind, becomes workable and sets off a war over who controls it. Estimated 2120 (range 2080–2250).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): A wealthy elite funds the search for radical life extension and tries to keep the results for itself. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2050).
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): Automation leaves a large share of people without stable paid work, in a precarious 'non-work' economy. Estimated 2045 (range 2033–2075).