# Did The Windup Girl (2009) come true?

Partly. The Windup Girl (2009) has a P(n) of 57% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 3 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Genetically engineered humans are made to order as obedient servants and sold as property', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2030.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-windup-girl

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): A handful of firms sell most of the world's staple-crop seed, protected by patents or by biology so that farmers must buy new seed every season. Estimated 2035 (range 2030–2050).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Fast-spreading plant diseases repeatedly threaten staple crops, and the response relies on quarantine and patented or engineered resistant varieties. Estimated 2030 (range 2027–2040).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): A major low-lying capital survives only behind levees and pumps, and is eventually flooded or abandoned for higher ground. Estimated 2040 (range 2030–2060).
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): Genetically engineered humans are made to order as obedient servants and sold as property. Estimated 2100 (range 2070–2200).