# Did The Martian (2015) come true?

Partly. The Martian (2015) has a P(n) of 50% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A crew of astronauts lands on Mars, works on the surface for weeks and returns to Earth', is expected within 50 years. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2040.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-martian-2015

## Predictions

- **NEAR** (weight 5/5): A crew of astronauts lands on Mars, works on the surface for weeks and returns to Earth. Estimated 2045 (range 2036–2065).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Crops can be grown in Martian soil, fertilised with human waste, to feed a stranded astronaut for years. Estimated 2045 (range 2035–2065).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Oxygen and water are made on Mars from local resources to sustain a habitat and support a return launch. Estimated 2040 (range 2033–2055).
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): NASA and China's space agency cooperate directly, with China supplying a launch vehicle, to rescue a stranded American astronaut. Estimated 2055 (range 2038–2100).