# Did The Lifecycle of Software Objects (2010) come true?

Partly. The Lifecycle of Software Objects (2010) has a P(n) of 62% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Learning software companions are sold to the public as pets or friends, and owners form lasting attachments to them', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2030.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-lifecycle-of-software-objects

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 5/5): Learning software companions are sold to the public as pets or friends, and owners form lasting attachments to them. Estimated 2030 (range 2027–2040).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): A company that hosts software companions fails or abandons its platform, and owners lose the companions or must pay to keep them running. Arrived 2023.
- **DIVERGED** (weight 4/5): Human-level artificial minds are produced by raising them over years of individual experience with attentive carers, rather than by training them once at scale.
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): Software minds are given moral or legal protections, such as consideration of their consent and welfare, because they are held to be possible persons. Estimated 2050 (range 2035–2090).