# Did The Island (2005) come true?

Partly. The Island (2005) has a P(n) of 66% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Fully grown human clones are produced in secret and kept as a supply of organs and pregnancies for wealthy clients', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-island-2005

## Predictions

- **FAR** (weight 5/5): Fully grown human clones are produced in secret and kept as a supply of organs and pregnancies for wealthy clients. Estimated 2100 (range 2070–2200).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Replacement organs are produced on demand for individual patients, so that a failing organ can be swapped out without waiting for a human donor. Estimated 2035 (range 2030–2045).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): A woman carries a pregnancy for wealthy clients under an arranged service, as a standard option in reproductive medicine. Arrived 1999.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Rich buyers obtain organs outside the legal system, taken from people with far less money or power. Arrived 2008.