# Did The Handmaid's Tale (1985) come true?

Partly. The Handmaid's Tale (1985) has a P(n) of 51% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A state assigns fertile women to ruling households as compulsory breeders, backed by law and punishment', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2030.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-handmaids-tale

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Birth rates fall so far that governments treat low fertility as a national emergency and build policy around it. Estimated 2030 (range 2027–2040).
- **FAR** (weight 3/5): Pollution, radiation and disease leave a large share of women unable to bear healthy children. Estimated 2120 (range 2070–2250).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): A government strips women of paid work and control of money by decree, within weeks of taking power. Arrived 2021.
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): A state assigns fertile women to ruling households as compulsory breeders, backed by law and punishment. Estimated 2150 (range 2080–2300).