# Did The Capture (2019) come true?

Largely, yes. The Capture (2019) has a P(n) of 96% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 4 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Live video can be altered in real time, convincingly enough that investigators, courts and the public accept it as genuine footage', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2029.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/the-capture-2019

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 5/5): Live video can be altered in real time, convincingly enough that investigators, courts and the public accept it as genuine footage. Estimated 2031 (range 2028–2042).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Police in a capital city can identify and follow people through a dense network of public cameras using live facial recognition. Estimated 2030 (range 2027–2037).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Courts operate formal rules for deciding whether contested video or audio evidence is authentic or a deepfake. Estimated 2029 (range 2027–2034).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Police have a system that checks footage for manipulation in real time and whose verdict investigators and courts rely on. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2045).