# Did Termination Shock (2021) come true?

Partly. Termination Shock (2021) has a P(n) of 50% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 5 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A private individual or company deploys stratospheric sulfur injection to cool the planet without international approval', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/termination-shock

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 5/5): A private individual or company deploys stratospheric sulfur injection to cool the planet without international approval. Estimated 2040 (range 2030–2065).
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): A state tries to stop another actor's stratospheric geoengineering programme by military force. Estimated 2065 (range 2040–2120).
- **DIVERGED** (weight 3/5): Vulnerable low-lying and small states form a coalition to push for solar geoengineering.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 2/5): India and China contest their disputed Himalayan frontier with hand-to-hand fighting rather than firearms. Arrived 2020.
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): Stratospheric sulfur injection is cheap enough that a single wealthy backer or small group of states could pay for it. Estimated 2035 (range 2030–2050).