# Did Severance (2018) come true?

Partly. Severance (2018) has a P(n) of 60% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A fungal infection that drives people to repeat their old routines until they die kills nearly everyone it infects, and collapses a country within months', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2040.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/severance

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): A novel pathogen spreads worldwide within months along travel and trade routes, emptying New York's streets and closing its offices. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Office work carries on through the collapse of the city around it, performed by people who keep to their routines. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): A drug-resistant fungal pathogen spreads from person to person across a country. Estimated 2040 (range 2030–2065).
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): A fungal infection that drives people to repeat their old routines until they die kills nearly everyone it infects, and collapses a country within months. Estimated 2120 (range 2075–2250).