# Did Parable of the Sower (1993) come true?

Partly. Parable of the Sower (1993) has a P(n) of 51% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Climate-driven drought and wildfire push Southern California into a lasting breakdown of public order, with water and security failing together', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/parable-of-the-sower

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 5/5): Climate-driven drought and wildfire push Southern California into a lasting breakdown of public order, with water and security failing together. Estimated 2055 (range 2035–2100).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Households that can afford it live behind walls and private guards, as private security grows beside a public police force. Estimated 2035 (range 2028–2060).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Fire protection is something people with money buy privately, while public services are overstretched or compromised. Arrived 2025.
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): A permanent human settlement is established off Earth, driven by a movement that treats leaving as humanity's purpose. Estimated 2075 (range 2045–2130).