# Did Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 (2015) come true?

Largely, yes. Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 (2015) has a P(n) of 83% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 5 tracked predictions, 3 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A new disease spreads between distant cities of the world within weeks, travelling along the links between them', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2032.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/pandemic-legacy-season-1

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): A new disease spreads between distant cities of the world within weeks, travelling along the links between them. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Authorities seal off whole cities, halting transport in and out, to contain an outbreak. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): A disease mutates during the outbreak into strains that defeat the previous response. Arrived 2021.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Nations pool knowledge and resources into one cooperative international response to pandemics. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2045).
- **FAR** (weight 3/5): A pandemic kills so large a share of humanity that civilisation collapses. Estimated 2150 (range 2075–2300).