# Did Outbreak (1995) come true?

Partly. Outbreak (1995) has a P(n) of 59% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A dangerous virus from an African animal host is carried into the United States through the animal trade and spreads to people', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2040.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/outbreak-1995

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): A dangerous virus from an African animal host is carried into the United States through the animal trade and spreads to people. Arrived 2003.
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): A virus spread by contact mutates within days into a respiratory form that passes through the air between strangers. Estimated 2075 (range 2040–2150).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Authorities put a cordon around a small American town and use troops to enforce a quarantine. Estimated 2045 (range 2030–2090).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): An antiserum made from a surviving host's antibodies is produced within hours of identifying a new virus and reverses illness in patients. Estimated 2040 (range 2030–2070).