# Did Oryx and Crake (2003) come true?

Mostly not yet. Oryx and Crake (2003) has a P(n) of 35% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A single insider engineers a lethal pathogen, hides it in a mass-market product, and kills most of humanity', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2033.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/oryx-and-crake

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Pigs are genetically engineered to grow organs for transplant into humans. Estimated 2033 (range 2029–2045).
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): A single insider engineers a lethal pathogen, hides it in a mass-market product, and kills most of humanity. Estimated 2110 (range 2050–2250).
- **FAR** (weight 4/5): A scientist designs a new human species, with engineered diet, temperament and biology, to replace us. Estimated 2150 (range 2090–2300).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 2/5): Meat is grown as a factory product without raising whole animals, and sold as ordinary fast food. Estimated 2036 (range 2030–2050).