# Did New York 2140 (2017) come true?

Mostly not yet. New York 2140 (2017) has a P(n) of 26% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 0 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Two pulses of sea-level rise leave the sea about 50 feet (15 metres) above today's level, drowning lower Manhattan, by 2140', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2032.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/new-york-2140

## Predictions

- **FAR** (weight 5/5): Two pulses of sea-level rise leave the sea about 50 feet (15 metres) above today's level, drowning lower Manhattan, by 2140. Estimated 2400 (range 2250–2700).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Financiers build indices and trade on which flooded or flood-exposed properties will hold their value, with mortgages priced to sea-level risk. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2045).
- **FAR** (weight 4/5): A mass refusal by ordinary households to pay rents, mortgages, student loans and other private debts brings the global financial system to the edge of collapse. Estimated 2100 (range 2050–2200).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): After a financial crash, the state takes failing major banks into public ownership and uses them for public ends, funding a new settlement with a tax on capital. Estimated 2060 (range 2035–2100).