# Did Infomocracy (2016) come true?

Partly. Infomocracy (2016) has a P(n) of 47% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A single private information provider administers the world's elections and audits whether governments keep their promises', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2090.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/infomocracy

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): One organisation provides the world's search, news and communications, and most people accept its results as the default account of events. Arrived 2024.
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): A single private information provider administers the world's elections and audits whether governments keep their promises. Estimated 2100 (range 2070–2200).
- **FAR** (weight 5/5): Citizens belong to overlapping governments of about 100,000 people each, chosen by preference rather than by location, and vote on them every ten years. Estimated 2090 (range 2060–2200).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): Organised disinformation and sabotage are aimed at an election's information channels, with the aim of swaying voters or destroying trust in the result. Arrived 2016.