# Did For All Mankind (2019) come true?

Partly. For All Mankind (2019) has a P(n) of 44% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A Soviet cosmonaut is the first person to walk on the Moon, in 1969, and the Space Race continues for decades instead of ending', diverged: history went another way. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2038.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/for-all-mankind-2019

## Predictions

- **DIVERGED** (weight 5/5): A Soviet cosmonaut is the first person to walk on the Moon, in 1969, and the Space Race continues for decades instead of ending.
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): A permanent crewed Moon base at the lunar south pole is established and expanded, and the show has it running by 1973. Estimated 2038 (range 2032–2055).
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): Humans land on Mars and build a permanent, growing settlement there, which has several thousand residents by the 2010s. Estimated 2050 (range 2040–2075).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): A private company, rather than a government agency, builds and flies crewed spacecraft and takes over space stations, competing with the national programmes. Arrived 2021.