# Did Eye in the Sky (2015) come true?

Largely, yes. Eye in the Sky (2015) has a P(n) of 90% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 3 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Crews in Nevada and Britain use satellite-linked armed drones to find and kill a target in another continent in real time', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2028.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/eye-in-the-sky-2015

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): Crews in Nevada and Britain use satellite-linked armed drones to find and kill a target in another continent in real time. Arrived 2007.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): An insect-sized, remotely piloted drone can fly inside a building and send back live video of the people in it. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2045).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Software helps pick out and identify targets from drone video, with a human making the final call. Estimated 2028 (range 2026–2035).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): A named elected minister is consulted on a specific strike while it is under way, and is held accountable for the civilian cost. Estimated 2035 (range 2028–2060).