# Did Don't Look Up (2021) come true?

Largely, yes. Don't Look Up (2021) has a P(n) of 81% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A credible scientific warning of a catastrophic, shared threat is met with polarised disbelief, media framing as entertainment and political delay, split along party lines', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/dont-look-up-2021

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): A credible scientific warning of a catastrophic, shared threat is met with polarised disbelief, media framing as entertainment and political delay, split along party lines. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): A spacecraft can be sent to change the course of an incoming comet or asteroid, including by nuclear means, in the time a late warning allows. Estimated 2035 (range 2030–2055).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): A standing government office tracks hazardous objects and issues impact warnings, but cannot see everything, such as a long-period comet, far enough ahead. Arrived 2016.
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): A private company mines a comet or asteroid for metals at a profit, and a government lets that prospect override a defence plan. Estimated 2045 (range 2035–2070).