# Did Civil War (2024) come true?

Partly. Civil War (2024) has a P(n) of 49% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A sustained armed civil war breaks out in the United States between the federal government and secessionist state-based forces, including a California-Texas alliance that advances on Washington, D.C', is still far off. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2100.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/civil-war-2024

## Predictions

- **FAR** (weight 5/5): A sustained armed civil war breaks out in the United States between the federal government and secessionist state-based forces, including a California-Texas alliance that advances on Washington, D.C. Estimated 2100 (range 2070–2200).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): Journalists covering domestic conflict in the United States are routinely assaulted, detained or arrested by armed state forces while working. Arrived 2020.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): The federal government sends military forces onto American city streets against the wishes of state and local authorities. Arrived 2025.
- **FAR** (weight 3/5): A US president serves a third term in office, in defiance of the two-term norm. Estimated 2100 (range 2060–2200).