# Did Black Mirror: Smithereens (2019) come true?

Largely, yes. Black Mirror: Smithereens (2019) has a P(n) of 100% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 3 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A major social platform is deliberately designed, through notifications and feeds, to keep users returning compulsively, and its own leadership knows it', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2029.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/black-mirror-smithereens

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): A major social platform is deliberately designed, through notifications and feeds, to keep users returning compulsively, and its own leadership knows it. Arrived 2021.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): A platform and its leadership are held to account, legally or by regulators, for the harm its design causes. Estimated 2029 (range 2027–2035).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): Parents of a dead child cannot get into the child's social media account to find out what happened, even when they ask the platform directly. Arrived 2022.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 3/5): A platform can quickly assemble a profile of a person from their data and share it with police in an emergency, without a court order. Arrived 2016.