# Did Black Mirror: Fifteen Million Merits (2011) come true?

Largely, yes. Black Mirror: Fifteen Million Merits (2011) has a P(n) of 72% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 2 have arrived and 0 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Ordinary people compete in audience-ranked talent contests, and fame is treated as the main way out of routine work', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2035.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/black-mirror-fifteen-million-merits

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): Ordinary people compete in audience-ranked talent contests, and fame is treated as the main way out of routine work. Arrived 2001.
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): Advertising cannot be dismissed without paying: viewers must sit through ads unless they pay to skip them. Arrived 2015.
- **FAR** (weight 4/5): A society's electricity is generated by its citizens cycling on stationary bikes, and their pedalling is the basis of its currency. Estimated 2120 (range 2080–2200).
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): Screens track whether you are looking and penalise you for looking away, so that attention itself is enforced. Estimated 2035 (range 2029–2050).