# Did AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future (2021) come true?

Largely, yes. AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future (2021) has a P(n) of 91% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 4 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 2 are arriving. Its central premise, 'Insurers set personalised premiums for a household from continuous data gathered by apps and devices, with a risk that the models learn proxies for protected traits such as caste', is partly here. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2032.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/ai-2041-ten-visions-for-our-future

## Predictions

- **ARRIVING** (weight 4/5): Insurers set personalised premiums for a household from continuous data gathered by apps and devices, with a risk that the models learn proxies for protected traits such as caste. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2040).
- **ARRIVED** (weight 4/5): Convincing synthetic audio and video of political figures is produced and used to influence voters in an election. Arrived 2023.
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): Fully driverless vehicles are a routine, large-scale form of urban transport, carrying paying passengers in many cities. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2040).
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): A quantum computer breaks widely used public-key cryptography, enabling large-scale theft of cryptocurrency. Estimated 2040 (range 2032–2060).