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Field notes from a little way ahead Week 45 · 2 Nov 2026 · Still early
P(n) Board › The Circle
Prediction ledger · Novel · 2013 · set in Unspecified near future, California

Did The Circle come true?

Strong on hardware and databases: networked cameras that police can tap and genealogy data that hunts people down both arrived within five years, and a single state-backed digital identity is rolling out in Europe. Weak on ideology: nobody voted through a company account, and the platforms never embraced transparency for themselves.

Read the review · 5.4/10 →
The Circle: official artwork
P(n)
67%
Claims
4
Next likely arrival
2029
How this P(n) was calculated

Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story: 5 is the core premise, 1 is background detail. Arrived scores 1, arriving 0.5, everything else 0. P(n) is the weighted points divided by the total weight.

ClaimPrediction · why this weightWeightStatusValuePoints
CIRCLE-1One real-name account holds a person's identity, logins and payments across the web.
Major: TruYou is the founding product that gave the Circle its power over the web.
 4ARRIVING0.52
CIRCLE-2Cheap, privately owned cameras everywhere feed a network that the public and the police can search.
Core premise: SeeChange cameras, Mae going transparent and the hunt for Mercer are the novel's spine.
 5ARRIVED15
CIRCLE-3Citizens vote through a mandatory account on a private platform, which effectively runs democracy.
Supporting: Demoxie is a key escalation toward Completion, but one of several.
 3DIVERGED00
CIRCLE-4Genealogy databases expose people's family histories and are used to track down individuals.
Supporting: PastPerfect digs up Annie's ancestors and breaks her, a real turn in a subplot.
 3ARRIVED13
Total1510

P(n) = 10 ÷ 15 = 67% · unweighted average 62%

  1. CIRCLE-1

    One real-name account holds a person's identity, logins and payments across the web.

    ARRIVINGMajorEst. 2029 · range 2027–2033Confidence: medium

    Weight 4/5 · Major: TruYou is the founding product that gave the Circle its power over the web.

    The EU requires every member state to offer a digital identity wallet that can log people in, sign documents and confirm payments, with a legal deadline of 24 December 2026. By September 2026 only three states had launched, and use is voluntary. It is a state credential, not a company's, which is the key difference from TruYou. 12

  2. CIRCLE-2

    Cheap, privately owned cameras everywhere feed a network that the public and the police can search.

    ARRIVEDCore premiseArrived 2025Confidence: high

    Weight 5/5 · Core premise: SeeChange cameras, Mae going transparent and the hunt for Mercer are the novel's spine.

    Flock's licence-plate camera network was searched more than 12 million times by over 3,900 agencies in under a year, and Ring lets police request footage from doorbell owners. A planned Ring-Flock integration was cancelled in February 2026 amid privacy concerns, showing public pushback can still slow the network's growth. 345

  3. CIRCLE-3

    Citizens vote through a mandatory account on a private platform, which effectively runs democracy.

    DIVERGEDSupportingNo arrival expected in this formConfidence: medium

    Weight 3/5 · Supporting: Demoxie is a key escalation toward Completion, but one of several.

    Online voting exists but went the other way: Estonia, the leading example, runs it as a state service, and voters can change an online vote or override it on paper. In the US, the National Academies recommended in 2018 that internet voting not be used until secrecy, security and verifiability can be guaranteed. No private platform runs an election. 678

  4. CIRCLE-4

    Genealogy databases expose people's family histories and are used to track down individuals.

    ARRIVEDSupportingArrived 2018Confidence: high

    Weight 3/5 · Supporting: PastPerfect digs up Annie's ancestors and breaks her, a real turn in a subplot.

    Investigators identified the suspected Golden State Killer in 2018 by uploading crime-scene DNA to GEDmatch and building family trees from a relative's match, and investigative genetic genealogy is now routine. The 2025 bankruptcy sale of 23andMe showed how much ancestry data has become a corporate asset. 910

Evidence
  1. FOR European Digital Identity. European Commission, 2026-06-26. Member states must make wallets available to every citizen, resident and business by the end of 2026, for authentication, documents and payments.
  2. AGAINST EU digital wallet: 24 of 27 members will miss the deadline. Euronews, 2026-09-16. Only three member states have launched; use is optional and paper documents remain valid.
  3. FOR EFF's Investigations Expose Flock Safety's Surveillance Abuses: 2025 in Review. Electronic Frontier Foundation, 2025-12-30. Records of more than 12 million searches by more than 3,900 agencies from December 2024 to October 2025.
  4. FOR Ring to partner with Flock, giving law enforcement easier access to home security camera footage. The Record, 2025-10-16. Announced deal to let Flock-using agencies request Ring footage through the Neighbors app.
  5. AGAINST Amazon's Ring cancels controversial partnership with tech company Flock amid privacy concerns. ABC17 News (CNN), 2026-02-13. The integration was cancelled before any footage was shared, though Ring's own police-request feature remains.
  6. CONTEXT Statistics about Internet voting in Estonia. Estonian National Electoral Committee, 2026-11-01. Internet voting since 2005; 51.1% of participating voters voted online in the 2023 Riigikogu election. Page undated; accessed 2026-11-01.
  7. AGAINST Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018-09-06. Consensus report recommending against internet voting until robust guarantees exist.
  8. AGAINST 'Securing the Vote': A Report From the National Academies of Sciences. Lawfare, 2018-09-12. Summarises the report's finding that internet voting should not be used at the present time.
  9. FOR In Hunt For Golden State Killer, Investigators Uploaded His DNA To Genealogy Site. NPR, 2018-04-27. Investigators matched crime-scene DNA to a relative on GEDmatch and worked back to the suspect.
  10. CONTEXT 23andMe Receives Court Approval for Sale to TTAM Research Institute, a Nonprofit Public Benefit Corporation. 23andMe, 2025-06-30. A bankruptcy court approves the $305 million sale of the company, including customers' genetic data.

Ledger updated 1 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method